Hamas Attack on Israel - 7th Oct 2023

[mikeylikey]

That sentence specifically refers to the "human shield" thing. It does not refer to the attacks on Israel directly, which were not passive and were heinous. Killing 15k civilians doesn't bring the 1200 people back or make Israel safer; going back 20 years and not supporting Hamas over secular parties because the secular parties were less favourable to the Israeli right wing might've been a good start.

Israel is essentially doing a post 9/11 speedrun.

If Civilians Are Everywhere because Gaza is Crowded (objectively true) then wouldn't it be equally difficult to
A) bomb it without hitting them and
B) run an armed resistance without operating among them?

[coldfire]

This simply isn't true. Israel pulled out of the Gaza strip in 2006. It does not have a presence within the Gaza Strip. I agree that Israel controls Gaza's borders and limits the mobility of Gazans. But prior to this military action there was not an Israeli presence within the Gaza strip. Hamas had complete control of all resources, civil services, the economy, and on and on

There are no resources, and there is no economy. Israel controls every single resource that enters the Gaza strip. The airport was bombed long before Israel pulled out of Gaza, part of the infrastructure was bombed after. Israel controls how much electricity, water, communication and food people in Gaza receive. You can get all the details and the documents here: https://gisha.org/en/

[BostonRugger]

Why didn't Israel attack the preceding 20 years? Because Hamas didn't attack them!

Picking two sentences out of your long post, but I don't understand what you're saying here.

They did attack Gaza several times over the past 20 years. Sometimes in response to Hamas violence. Other times, not so much.


ETA:

I still think the best strategy for either side is to shut up and just point at the other side saying "Do you see these assholes? Look how awful they are."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 56116.html

[aurelius]

There are no resources, and there is no economy. Israel controls every single resource that enters the Gaza strip. The airport was bombed long before Israel pulled out of Gaza, part of the infrastructure was bombed after. Israel controls how much electricity, water, communication and food people in Gaza receive. You can get all the details and the documents here: https://gisha.org/en/

And yet Hamas levies taxes that generate $450 million a year (just a read an article below that puts taxes and levies at $250 million with Iran giving up to an additional $500 million per year) on the Gaza strip and has been given billions from the international community. To give an idea of the purchasing power, monthly salaries of $300. Hamas also is heavily invested in foreign investments.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... tays-power

Hats off to Gisha as I believe them to be on the right side of things but they are not exactly an unbiased group. And the point is that if Hamas invested international aide and the taxes they levy to build vital infrastructure and provide necessary civil services then the plight of the Gazans would be much different today. And we know this because look at the difference in the economies of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The West Bank is trying to build an independent state without Israel's help and under constant Israeli settler violence. The West Bank has half the unemployment and double the daily wage of the Gaza Strip. Hamas does not care about creating an independent and sustainable state in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.ft.com/content/7b618433-ba5 ... d41d6d17f8

I still think the best strategy for either side is to shut up and just point at the other side saying "Do you see these assholes? Look how awful they are."

I agree. It is now MO Israel's 'best' response would have been to do just that to the October 7th attack. Possibly call on a UN Arab state police force to enter the Gaza strip. Putting the pressure on Arab states.

Hamas's best strategy would have been to invest their resources and international aide into the Gaza strip and then point at Israel as to why they cannot improve their plight.

Something we are not discussing, which I believe Israel has zero justification for, is the violence and aggression in the West Bank. Both previous to and after the October 7th attacks. Which is a strong point to those that argue Israel is a bunch of thugs.

[coldfire]

And yet Hamas levies taxes that generate $450 million a year (just a read an article below that puts taxes and levies at $250 million with Iran giving up to an additional $500 million per year) on the Gaza strip and has been given billions from the international community. To give an idea of the purchasing power, monthly salaries of $300. Hamas also is heavily invested in foreign investments.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... tays-power

Hats off to Gisha as I believe them to be on the right side of things but they are not exactly an unbiased group. And the point is that if Hamas invested international aide and the taxes they levy to build vital infrastructure and provide necessary civil services then the plight of the Gazans would be much different today. And we know this because look at the difference in the economies of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The West Bank is trying to build an independent state without Israel's help and under constant Israeli settler violence. The West Bank has half the unemployment and double the daily wage of the Gaza Strip. Hamas does not care about creating an independent and sustainable state in the Gaza Strip.
https://www.ft.com/content/7b618433-ba5 ... d41d6d17f8

Even according to your source:

Yet much of this income does not represent productive economic activities, and unemployment remains high -- probably around a third of the workforce.

One must also take into account the considerable trade conducted via the more than 800 tunnels into Egypt. Based on fragmentary evidence, this trade likely peaked at around $600-850 million per year.

The unemployment today is much higher (around 50%) and the blockade is tighter. This is not to say that Hamas couldn't use their money and resources to make Gazans' lives better, but that's not how it works. People that come to power in an oppressed society are usually not very peaceful or caring, and every Israeli attack on Gaza makes them more popular.

Something we are not discussing, which I believe Israel has zero justification for, is the violence and aggression in the West Bank.

Absolutely.

[JonA]

There are no resources, and there is no economy. Israel controls every single resource that enters the Gaza strip.

Egypt is also part of the blockade and there are quite a few other nations enforcing the sanctions. It is not entirely Israel.

And just to further nitpick, there is a steady stream of money and resources from Iran going into Gaza. Israel definitely does not control that.

[coldfire]

There are no resources, and there is no economy. Israel controls every single resource that enters the Gaza strip.

Egypt is also part of the blockade and there are quite a few other nations enforcing the sanctions. It is not entirely Israel.

And just to further nitpick, there is a steady stream of money and resources from Iran going into Gaza. Israel definitely does not control that.

You mean that there is a steady stream of money from Iran (and other sources) to Hamas. But it does not mean much regarding the economy of Gaza.
You can check which products are not allowed to enter Gaza, what Israel controls and how that works. For example:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/ ... limit-gaza

[aurelius]

NYT just broke the story that the IDF had the Hamas attack plan at least a year in advance, saw them stage the entire attack, and did nothing. Assumed it was ‘aspirational’ and Hamas did not have the capability. Complacency and arrogance. Can’t make this up.

[Philbert]

10-15k people, over half of whom are women and children, in the most densely populated location on earth with an average age of 19 years old. Killing .5-75% of the total population in less than 2 months is still fucking insane on Israel's part. ~1.7 million are displaced on top of that

I heard on a podcast the other day that, controlling for population size, the 10/7 attacks would be comparable to if 9/11 had killed 30,000 Americans. And the Israeli attacks on Gaza, if they happened in America, would be like ~ 200,000 American children being killed.

While we are doing comparisons of proportionality, 2977 Americans on September 11, 176,000 Afghans killed afterward, and 151,000 Iraqis killed because reasons. The US political establishment has no standing to remonstrate with Israel about proportionality.

[coldfire]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ng-targets

Moyes, of Article 36, said that when relying on tools such as the Gospel, a commander “is handed a list of targets a computer has generated” and they “don’t necessarily know how the list has been created or have the ability to adequately interrogate and question the targeting recommendations”.

“There is a danger,” he added, “that as humans come to rely on these systems they become cogs in a mechanised process and lose the ability to consider the risk of civilian harm in a meaningful way.”

[mikeylikey]

NYT just broke the story that the IDF had the Hamas attack plan at least a year in advance, saw them stage the entire attack, and did nothing. Assumed it was ‘aspirational’ and Hamas did not have the capability. Complacency and arrogance. Can’t make this up.

The idea that Israeli intelligence knows details like exactly where tunnel entrances are and which specific ambulances have Hamas trrrists in them in real time, never sat well with the notion they had no inkling 10/7 was coming.

[mikeylikey]

RE: this truce. I'm going out on a limb and saying I think major hostilities are probably over, for at least a couple years.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/ ... l-gaza-war

Don't worry I've got plenty more brilliant insights where this one came from.

[JonA]

NYT just broke the story that the IDF had the Hamas attack plan at least a year in advance, saw them stage the entire attack, and did nothing. Assumed it was ‘aspirational’ and Hamas did not have the capability. Complacency and arrogance. Can’t make this up.

And maybe resignation as well. I'm not sure what preventative action Israel could have taken that would be seen as acceptable. Shutdown the border? Checkpoints to control movement and search people? Raids into Gaza to try to surgically take out bad actors planning the attack? Mobilize their army at the border?

[JonA]

RE: this truce. I'm going out on a limb and saying I think major hostilities are probably over, for at least a couple years.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/ ... l-gaza-war

Don't worry I've got plenty more brilliant insights where this one came from.

Even so, I think whoever the negotiators from Egypt and Qatar were, they probably deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for what they accomplished, even if temporary. I can't imagine a more difficult thing to mediate.

[aurelius]

And maybe resignation as well. I'm not sure what preventative action Israel could have taken that would be seen as acceptable. Shutdown the border? Checkpoints to control movement and search people? Raids into Gaza to try to surgically take out bad actors planning the attack? Mobilize their army at the border?

Over a year in advance the IDF and Israeli leadership had a detailed attack plan that showed weaknesses in israeli defenses and how they would be exploited/compromised. Including a detailed multi-pronged attack with objectives identified. The detail of the plan showed advanced intelligence capabilities and likely leaks in the IDF. The IDF then witnessed their enemy rehearse the plan within the Gaza Strip.

The correct response would be strengthen one’s defenses so that the plan would not succeed. Identify and eliminate any intelligence leaks. Change protocols, troop deployments and routine, create redundancies that if first line detection is eliminated you have back ups, and so forth. And most importantly, developer a counter attack for when the enemy attempted the plan. And yes, possible action within the Gaza Strip to reduce Hamas operational capabilities.

The IDF did nothing.

[aurelius]

Don't worry I've got plenty more brilliant insights where this one came from.

I read that Hamas is unable to locate the hostages it took. And ran out of bargaining chips to extend the cease fire. Which points to the effectiveness of the Israeli attack to disrupt Hamas operations/central leadership, Hamas may not be a centralized organization we are treating them as, or both.

[JonA]

Don't worry I've got plenty more brilliant insights where this one came from.

I read that Hamas is unable to locate the hostages it took. And ran out of bargaining chips to extend the cease fire. Which points to the effectiveness of the Israeli attack to disrupt Hamas operations/central leadership, Hamas may not be a as a centralized organization we are treating them as, or both.

Or maybe US intelligence was correct and Hamas lost it's central command and control center when Israel occupied al-Shifa.

[mikeylikey]

Or maybe US intelligence was correct and Hamas lost it's central command and control center when Israel occupied al-Shifa.

But Israel did not find a a central command and control center when they occupied al-Shifa. They found a dozen Ak and some Radios(TM).

I am not saying there was never anything else there. Maybe there was a Super Advanced Tactical Command and Control Center there a couple weeks ago, and Hamas dismantled it and spirited it all away through tunnels. But with this hypothesis necessarily comes the assumption that Hamas has the strategic and logistical wherewithal to do such a thing. Which which wherewithal does not square well with losing track of hostages.

[JonA]

Which which wherewithal does not square well with losing track of hostages.

It's exactly in alignment with that. The people who knew all the details are scattered and in hiding now (otherwise incapacitated). There is no way to contact them or coordinate them.

[mikeylikey]

The people who knew all the details are scattered and in hiding now (otherwise incapacitated). There is no way to contact them or coordinate them.

I get that. My point is that Hamas' operations were probably never very sophisticated to begin with. I would wager that at no time going all the way back to 10/7 could Hamas have produced a complete manifest of hostages.