Hamas Attack on Israel - 7th Oct 2023

[hector]

they let it happen

I've had that thought too.

It’s tempting to think this because you’re talking about one of the most advanced intelligence agencies in the world dropping the ball on one of the targets it’s watching most. Dropping the ball and failing to detect something that involves lots of planning, probably lots of meetings, likely for at least 2 years. How was there no human source, no signals, giving the operation away?

But how many Israelis would have to turn a blind eye? How many would have to stay quiet now about enabling a massacre of their own people?

And how good do you think people are at keeping secrets?

These last few questions make me think Israel did not want this to happen, did not engineer this or anticipate it in order to exploit it as some sort of larger plan. They just fucked up. Failures happen, even to the best of systems and people. Even Jordan (the player, not the country) had off nights.

[Hardartery]

they let it happen

I've had that thought too.

It’s tempting to think this because you’re talking about one of the most advanced intelligence agencies in the world dropping the ball on one of the targets it’s watching most. Dropping the ball and failing to detect something that involves lots of planning, probably lots of meetings, likely for at least 2 years. How was there no human source, no signals, giving the operation away?

But how many Israelis would have to turn a blind eye? How many would have to stay quiet now about enabling a massacre of their own people?

And how good do you think people are at keeping secrets?

These last few questions make me think Israel did not want this to happen, did not engineer this or anticipate it in order to exploit it as some sort of larger plan. They just fucked up. Failures happen, even to the best of systems and people. Even Jordan (the player, not the country) had off nights.

Worse things have been allowed to happen for what would be similar motivations throughout history. I'm not saying that they did, but it wouldn't surprise me unfortunately.

[Philbert]

they let it happen

I've had that thought too.

It’s tempting to think this because you’re talking about one of the most advanced intelligence agencies in the world dropping the ball on one of the targets it’s watching most. Dropping the ball and failing to detect something that involves lots of planning, probably lots of meetings, likely for at least 2 years. How was there no human source, no signals, giving the operation away?

But how many Israelis would have to turn a blind eye? How many would have to stay quiet now about enabling a massacre of their own people?

And how good do you think people are at keeping secrets?

These last few questions make me think Israel did not want this to happen, did not engineer this or anticipate it in order to exploit it as some sort of larger plan. They just fucked up. Failures happen, even to the best of systems and people. Even Jordan (the player, not the country) had off nights.

Worse things have been allowed to happen for what would be similar motivations throughout history. I'm not saying that they did, but it wouldn't surprise me unfortunately.

The willingness of politicians everywhere, at all times, and in large numbers; to kill or let die their own ostensible constituents for a chance of short term political gain, is not in dispute by any reasonable person. But I am inclined to agree with Hector because humans are even more capable of stupid and careless errors than politicians are of evil.

[DanCR]

I read an interview, maybe the same one I posted, that this was a failure of Israeli intelligence and political will. They had all the information to understand and prevent the attack. Just a combination of disarray of leadership at the top and complacency resulted in inaction. Not dissimilar to 9/11.

This seems like a much bigger intelligence failure than 9/11, all things considered.

they let it happen

Likely not for the reasons mentioned by @hector and others buuuuuuut this was the first thing that I texted to one of my chat groups, like ten minutes after the news broke. Just too perfect for this particular government / recent circumstances.

[mikeylikey]

Now that the IDF is inside Gaza and helping to evacuate babies from the hospital, I'm sure in short order we'll get to see pictures of the Hamas command post and rocket storage bunkers underneath said hospital.

[mikeylikey]

Now that the IDF is inside Gaza and helping to evacuate babies from the hospital, I'm sure in short order we'll get to see pictures of the Hamas command post and rocket storage bunkers underneath said hospital.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... ri-center/

They found it(?)

“During searches inside one of the hospital’s wards, the troops located a room containing unique technological means, combat equipment, and military equipment used by the Hamas terrorist organization,” the IDF says.

It publishes images and videos showing several assault rifles, grenades, and other military equipment. It says that in another ward, it found a Hamas operational headquarters and “technological means” which it says indicates Hamas’s use of the facility for terror

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, in an evening press conference, says troops found Hamas uniforms “that were thrown on the hospital floor so that the terrorists could escape in civilian guise.”

[hector]

Now that the IDF is inside Gaza and helping to evacuate babies from the hospital, I'm sure in short order we'll get to see pictures of the Hamas command post and rocket storage bunkers underneath said hospital.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... ri-center/

They found it(?)

“During searches inside one of the hospital’s wards, the troops located a room containing unique technological means, combat equipment, and military equipment used by the Hamas terrorist organization,” the IDF says.

It publishes images and videos showing several assault rifles, grenades, and other military equipment. It says that in another ward, it found a Hamas operational headquarters and “technological means” which it says indicates Hamas’s use of the facility for terror

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, in an evening press conference, says troops found Hamas uniforms “that were thrown on the hospital floor so that the terrorists could escape in civilian guise.”

I’m not saying the IDF is lying, but my neighbor has more guns than this.

Would have been more convincing if there was an entryway to a tunnel, evidence of lots of militants movement into/out-of the command center, secure communications with encrypted/frequency-hopping radios or shielded Ethernet (or however sophisticated terrorists communicate), whatever.

Maybe we’ll see all that soon.

[Hardartery]

Now that the IDF is inside Gaza and helping to evacuate babies from the hospital, I'm sure in short order we'll get to see pictures of the Hamas command post and rocket storage bunkers underneath said hospital.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... ri-center/

They found it(?)

“During searches inside one of the hospital’s wards, the troops located a room containing unique technological means, combat equipment, and military equipment used by the Hamas terrorist organization,” the IDF says.

It publishes images and videos showing several assault rifles, grenades, and other military equipment. It says that in another ward, it found a Hamas operational headquarters and “technological means” which it says indicates Hamas’s use of the facility for terror

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, in an evening press conference, says troops found Hamas uniforms “that were thrown on the hospital floor so that the terrorists could escape in civilian guise.”

I’m not saying the IDF is lying, but my neighbor has more guns than this.

Would have been more convincing if there was an entryway to a tunnel, evidence of lots of militants movement into/out-of the command center, secure communications with encrypted/frequency-hopping radios or shielded Ethernet (or however sophisticated terrorists communicate), whatever.

Maybe we’ll see all that soon.

LOL. Fair enough point, but it seems like a lot of weapons for a hospital outside of Texas.

[JonA]

Would have been more convincing if there was an entryway to a tunnel, evidence of lots of militants movement into/out-of the command center, secure communications with encrypted/frequency-hopping radios or shielded Ethernet (or however sophisticated terrorists communicate), whatever.

I'm not saying Hamas is competent, but I'd think that their very top priority would be to make sure absolutely nothing incriminating was left behind that would disrupt their narrative that Israel is gleefully killing Palestinians in hospitals without cause. Giving Israel a hospital to occupy with no signs of terrorist activity is just about the surest path to victory for Hamas at this point.

Or maybe Hamas doesn't even care. They'll probably go on claiming the same things regardless and people will just go on believing them. Because reasons.

[JonA]

The 2 cans of WD-40 are a sure sign of terrorism.

[hector]

Would have been more convincing if there was an entryway to a tunnel, evidence of lots of militants movement into/out-of the command center, secure communications with encrypted/frequency-hopping radios or shielded Ethernet (or however sophisticated terrorists communicate), whatever.

I'm not saying Hamas is competent, but I'd think that their very top priority would be to make sure absolutely nothing incriminating was left behind that would disrupt their narrative that Israel is gleefully killing Palestinians in hospitals without cause. Giving Israel a hospital to occupy with no signs of terrorist activity is just about the surest path to victory for Hamas at this point.

Or maybe Hamas doesn't even care. They'll probably go on claiming the same things regardless and people will just go on believing them. Because reasons.

I want to think Hamas is not that smart. But considering they were just catastrophically underestimated, idk.

If Hamas was having fake conversations to throw off Israeli intelligence wiretaps for the past 2 years, then maybe they made sure to describe the hospital as their center of operations. The claim throw Israel off, force Israel to wrestle with paying an enormous price before taking out the alleged command center, and play into the assumption that Hamas would use exactly this sort of place as a HQ.

But it’s also fog of war. I’m sure this stuff will all look greatly different a year from now.

[mikeylikey]

LOL. Fair enough point, but it seems like a lot of weapons for a hospital outside of Texas.

I mean if you draw a line from "# of AKs you would expect to find in a hospital" to "# of AK's you would expect to find in the HQ of a major militant quasi government / terrorist organization", we would agree that "Nine" would be somewhere between those two points. But I'm thinking closer to one than the other.

[Hardartery]

LOL. Fair enough point, but it seems like a lot of weapons for a hospital outside of Texas.

I mean if you draw a line from "# of AKs you would expect to find in a hospital" to "# of AK's you would expect to find in the HQ of a major militant quasi government / terrorist organization", we would agree that "Nine" would be somewhere between those two points. But I'm thinking closer to one than the other.

It seems a little light for a terrorist HQ/Command Center. I mean, there should at least be a few RPG's right?

[mikeylikey]

It seems a little light for a terrorist HQ/Command Center. I mean, there should at least be a few RPG's right?

I don't think it's a stretch to assume that any rocket launchers that WERE there would be the first thing that would have been spirited out through the tunnels in the 40 days they've had to do so.

Also during the past 40 days Israel has made it pretty unequivocal that they are coming for that hospital. It is not a stretch to imagine the AK's and WD40 ended up there because Hamas moved INTO the hospital during that time in order to defend it.

Not a lot is definitively knowable right now.

[hector]

Would have been more convincing if there was an entryway to a tunnel, evidence of lots of militants movement into/out-of the command center, secure communications with encrypted/frequency-hopping radios or shielded Ethernet (or however sophisticated terrorists communicate), whatever.

I'm not saying Hamas is competent, but I'd think that their very top priority would be to make sure absolutely nothing incriminating was left behind that would disrupt their narrative that Israel is gleefully killing Palestinians in hospitals without cause. Giving Israel a hospital to occupy with no signs of terrorist activity is just about the surest path to victory for Hamas at this point.

Or maybe Hamas doesn't even care. They'll probably go on claiming the same things regardless and people will just go on believing them. Because reasons.

We might have a tunnel in the hospital. If legit, much bigger deal than the 10 AK.

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMibm ... id=US%3Aen

[mbasic]

Saw a weird commercial / AD/ PSA-thing during NFL Football yesterday.

Something about hastag and a bluesquare .... some kid of solidarity movement about all the anti-jewish hate something-something.

It was worded kind of odd, it said something along the lines of:

"Ever since the terrorist attacks on (Israel?), anti-Jewish hate incidents have increased by 500% suddenly" or something.

Whole thing seemed ..... off.

Seems like they're leaving out quite a few details. I mean, nobody should be committing hate crimes against anyone else,
and I'm not excusing anyone for anything, but goddamn was that statement kinda "shallow" or whatever.

--------------------

shit, I just googled it. I guess this little media campaign thing started 7 months ago, by Robert Kraft? or something.
And now they have just tweaked it a little to fit with the recent events.
I guess I am out of touch because this is first I've ever heard about it.

[mbasic]

LOL. Fair enough point, but it seems like a lot of weapons for a hospital outside of Texas.

I mean if you draw a line from "# of AKs you would expect to find in a hospital" to "# of AK's you would expect to find in the HQ of a major militant quasi government / terrorist organization", we would agree that "Nine" would be somewhere between those two points. But I'm thinking closer to one than the other.

How 'bout bricks of C-4, RPG rounds, gernades, mines, etc?



Just stuff to keep the hospital secure I suppose

"And two" - I don't think Hamas' m.o. is going toe-to-toe, mono e mono, or AK-vs-Tavor with Israel is some kind of traditional shoot-it-out battle.... sure they have some guns lying around. But the rockets, bomb making materials, RPG rockets, IED-parts, etc are the bigger tell here.

[mikeylikey]

LOL. Fair enough point, but it seems like a lot of weapons for a hospital outside of Texas.

I mean if you draw a line from "# of AKs you would expect to find in a hospital" to "# of AK's you would expect to find in the HQ of a major militant quasi government / terrorist organization", we would agree that "Nine" would be somewhere between those two points. But I'm thinking closer to one than the other.

How 'bout bricks of C-4, RPG rounds, gernades, mines, etc?



Just stuff to keep the hospital secure I suppose

"And two" - I don't think Hamas' m.o. is going toe-to-toe, mono e mono, or AK-vs-Tavor with Israel is some kind of traditional shoot-it-out battle.... sure they have some guns lying around. But the rockets, bomb making materials, RPG rockets, IED-parts, etc are the bigger tell here.

What's a ballpark range for the numbers of these types of weapons that should make everybody feel comfortable with the IDF killing a couple thousand people to get there? Is it this many^, or, are we at least close?

[aurelius]

What's a ballpark range for the numbers of these types of weapons that should make everybody feel comfortable with the IDF killing a couple thousand people to get there? Is it this many^, or, are we at least close?

Alternatively Hamas had weeks to move their base of operations through the tunnel network and what was discovered is what was left behind.

To directly answer your questions: zero. None of these weapons are an existential threat to Israel. All of these weapons can only be used if Hamas crosses a patrolled, militarized border (requiring an IDF intelligence failures). Nothing has been found that a US far-right militia doesn't have.

Rewind to 2006. Israel failed to eliminate Hezbollah command in that war. Today Hezbollah is much stronger.

[BostonRugger]

I walked down to my basement earlier and was SHOCKED to see that there was a miniature Hamas HQ down there. Sneaky devils.

On the good news front, there are reports that hostage negotiations could reach an agreement soon.

On the crazy shit front, this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... sea-israel

Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they have seized what they called an Israeli cargo ship in the Red Sea, and warned that all vessels linked to Israel “will become a legitimate target for armed forces”