2024 POTUS ELECTON

[dw]

First betting market I checked had Trump as a favorite over the entire field, but I couldn't tell how liquid that market is (meaning how low the bid-ask spread is and therefore what odds are actually implied by that price).

I can't imagine what kind of lackeys he would appoint this time around.

[GlasgowJock]

First betting market I checked had Trump as a favorite over the entire field, but I couldn't tell how liquid that market is

Aye a colleague highlighted the same observation today; given the odds bet365 has Trump as the bookie's favourite.

[SSJBartSimpson]

What I am seeing several of you apparently positing above is that pollsters have overcorrected and are now spotting Trump several extra points, so that his current lead can be disregarded as an illusion. I'm not buying it.

I think it's this + Biden is now the one with an EC edge as the trends favor him in the most crucial swing states, so he could lose the PV and win the EC.
People act like I'm crazy for saying this, but Obama had an EC advantage in 2012 as well. It ended up not mattering because he ended with a comfortable PV as well.

[hector]

First betting market I checked had Trump as a favorite over the entire field, but I couldn't tell how liquid that market is (meaning how low the bid-ask spread is and therefore what odds are actually implied by that price).

I can't imagine what kind of lackeys he would appoint this time around.

Some of the betting markets are weird and not indicative of the best information applied to most probable ultimate victor, but instead best information applied to short term changes.

There’s one market where you can buy/sell shares at any time. So say Michelle Obama is at 2% to win. You can place a bet on that, and then if the odds change to put Michelle at 4%, you can cash out immediately and double your money.

People might buy this 2% bet on the off chance that some random thing knocks Michelle up to 3 or 4%, and all the while never believing that Michelle would actually take the White House.

[EricK]

What I am seeing several of you apparently positing above is that pollsters have overcorrected and are now spotting Trump several extra points, so that his current lead can be disregarded as an illusion. I'm not buying it.

I think it's this + Biden is now the one with an EC edge as the trends favor him in the most crucial swing states, so he could lose the PV and win the EC.
People act like I'm crazy for saying this, but Obama had an EC advantage in 2012 as well. It ended up not mattering because he ended with a comfortable PV as well.

Where do you see the trends favoring Biden in crucial swing states? This Hill article referencing a Bloomberg poll has Trump favored in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... urvey/amp/

Given the 270towin map (https://www.270towin.com/), Trump only needs Georgia and Pennsylvania to win.

[dw]

Anyone watch the SOTU address?

From what I'm reading Biden acquitted himself better than expected.

[5hout]

Anyone watch the SOTU address?

From what I'm reading Biden acquitted himself better than expected.

https://factba.se/biden/calendar

Didn't watch. Per msgs/news sounds like above, although one person did msg me "The idea that he’s in some sort of mental decline couldn’t be further from the truth. ... Def not the smoothest talker, he stutters & slurs a bit, but he always has bc he has a stutter." which to me reads like some top notch copium.

Look at his calendar. He basically took a week off to rest up before 1 9pm speech. I'm not saying this as a T v B matter, but just as a "he's too damn old, T is too damn old as well". To turn in "above average" slurred speech he had to take a week off? Good gracious. I don't think the calculus works out in favor of debates happening, or there being more than 1 debate, but it'll be exciting to see if it happens. Must watch TV for sure.

[GlasgowJock]

Didn't watch. Per msgs/news sounds like above, although one person did msg me "The idea that he’s in some sort of mental decline couldn’t be further from the truth. ... Def not the smoothest talker, he stutters & slurs a bit, but he always has bc he has a stutter." which to me reads like some top notch copium.

Indeed.

Biden talking on the Falklands ~40 years ago:

[aurelius]

Look at his calendar. He basically took a week off to rest up before 1 9pm speech. I'm not saying this as a T v B matter, but just as a "he's too damn old, T is too damn old as well". To turn in "above average" slurred speech he had to take a week off? Good gracious. I don't think the calculus works out in favor of debates happening, or there being more than 1 debate, but it'll be exciting to see if it happens. Must watch TV for sure.

I don't know why this is a criticism. I'm sure that is true of every President of the modern era the week before SOTU to prepare. I'd also argue it is normal for anyone about to give a live televised speech to prepare. Did you watch the King's Speech? Another leader that had to give an important address with a stuttering problem. A whole 2 hour movie about a guy preparing to give a speech. And that was just radio.

But yes, Trump and Biden are too old.

[SSJBartSimpson]

What I am seeing several of you apparently positing above is that pollsters have overcorrected and are now spotting Trump several extra points, so that his current lead can be disregarded as an illusion. I'm not buying it.

I think it's this + Biden is now the one with an EC edge as the trends favor him in the most crucial swing states, so he could lose the PV and win the EC.
People act like I'm crazy for saying this, but Obama had an EC advantage in 2012 as well. It ended up not mattering because he ended with a comfortable PV as well.

Where do you see the trends favoring Biden in crucial swing states? This Hill article referencing a Bloomberg poll has Trump favored in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... urvey/amp/

Given the 270towin map (https://www.270towin.com/), Trump only needs Georgia and Pennsylvania to win.

Here's why I don't think it's realistic for Trump to win Georgia or Pennsylvania:

For Georgia, BIden won this state in 2020 by 0.2%, while he won nationwide by 4.5%. So it was over 4 points to the right of the nation.
Republicans largely won in Georgia in 2022; however, one democrat did win: Warnock. How did he win? For one, his opponent was a Trump ally while the other big-name republicans Kemp and Raffensperger had famously repudiated him and got a lot of independent support because of it. Georgian independents had the chance to vote against Biden at the federal level but sent Warnock back to the senate when the environment was much redder and Biden's approval ratings were/are in the s***hole.
But even if we didn't have the senate race to look at as a point of comparison there were some serious red-flags for republicans in the races they did win.
The most important counties in Georgia are the counties around Fulton, the highly populated suburbs of Atlanta. Abrams who basically became a meme outperformed Biden in a number of suburban counties in a much redder environment.
Clayton:
--Biden 2020: +70.9
--Abrams 2022: +72.6
Henry:
--Biden 2020: +20.5
--Abrams 2022: +23.3
Rockdale:
--Biden 2020: +40.8
--Abrams 2022: +42.4
These margins really make even less sense when you consider black turnout was way down in 2022; so the drivers of these margins were suburban whites.
So the question here is Trump going to be able to narrow these margins? He's already proven himself toxic to these white college-ed voters, so that seems unlikely when Walker could not do it. He also has the option of winning the rural margins even more, but these are easily offset by a slight swing left in one of the Atlanta counties.

It's a similar case in Pennsylvania, the analogous example being Philadelphia. The most important county here is Montgomery and it's trended left since 2016 into 2022; however, there is an even bigger issue going on. While Georgia is almost universally gaining population, Pennsylvania is losing population; however, the exception is the suburbs of Philadelphia and especially Montgomery. So if the rest of the state where republican votes come from is decreasing in population but these suburban counties are growing and getting bluer, what is the answer to that for Trump?

I won't even get into the county analysis for Arizona, but democrats unexpectedly won the governorship in 2022 with minimal engagement and the state republican party is near bankruptcy and are nominating the crazy lady who bungled said governors election as the senate nominee.

This analysis could be wrong and these counties could vote differently than they've been trending in the last several election cycles, but all the evidence we have for why they are trending in this direction is because of Trump.With him on the ballot, or a Trump-like candidate, I don't see these states becoming competitive.

I think Trump could win Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan, but these just won't be enough.

[JonA]

I would have thought the late night comedians would have had a blast with this one.

* Jump on Air Force One with me and we'll fly over to Moscow.
* Putin and me go way back.
* We must defend these threats to democracy!
* I'll say her name...Lincoln Riley!
* Thousands of people are killed by "illegals" every year.
* We need a real come to Jesus talk with Netanyahu
* I love Corporations!
* You're gonna find out the political and electoral power of women! ( To the supreme Court justices who are not answerable to them)

9/10 on the Bushism scale.
7/10 on the Grandpa Simpson scale.

[5hout]

Look at his calendar. He basically took a week off to rest up before 1 9pm speech. I'm not saying this as a T v B matter, but just as a "he's too damn old, T is too damn old as well". To turn in "above average" slurred speech he had to take a week off? Good gracious. I don't think the calculus works out in favor of debates happening, or there being more than 1 debate, but it'll be exciting to see if it happens. Must watch TV for sure.

I don't know why this is a criticism. I'm sure that is true of every President of the modern era the week before SOTU to prepare. I'd also argue it is normal for anyone about to give a live televised speech to prepare. Did you watch the King's Speech? Another leader that had to give an important address with a stuttering problem. A whole 2 hour movie about a guy preparing to give a speech. And that was just radio.

But yes, Trump and Biden are too old.

I meant the criticism in a pre-emptive (very minor) ding on the people that were going to say "See, he gave 1 speech therefore it is unreasonable to still question if he has brain meltosis". It's like if certain Kansas City QBs are dinged up and you dare mention that maybe their performance is suffering or will suffer b/c of the dings, a billion rabid fans (approx) will assault you online for daring to mention this.

Happily, post-your question (but during the weekend when I don't use my desktop and hence am too lazy to forum post usually) someone sent me (clipping from a larger msg) "So it dispelled the bullshit about him being slow/in mental decline." exactly proving (to me) the necessity of pointing out stuff like "taking a week off to prepare for 1 speech does not, in fact, completely address complains about having cheese for brains. It does show he can perform on A day (with a week notice), but does not put to rest concerns about "what happens when he's needed NOW, with 0 notice and he just took a cross country flight and is exhausted" or any other of a million situations you can reasonably predict a president might have to handle".

I mean, it's just too perfect so:
https://youtu.be/CQoGfOBTx6E?t=210

[SSJBartSimpson]

First betting market I checked had Trump as a favorite over the entire field, but I couldn't tell how liquid that market is (meaning how low the bid-ask spread is and therefore what odds are actually implied by that price).

I can't imagine what kind of lackeys he would appoint this time around.

Famously, no one lost any money voting on republican victories in 2022.