2024 POTUS ELECTON

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#61

Post by mikeylikey » Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:11 am

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:02 am
It seems the Republican Party was formed from the dissolution of the anti-slavery Whigs and Free Soilers in the North when the Whig party died in 1854 because internal divisions over slavery. The Republicans ran Jon C. Fremont for President in 1856. There appears to be a period of 4 to 6 years between the dissolution of the Whig Party and the rise of the Republican party that there was only one major party (the Democratic). Only in the US is the party that supported slavery be called the Democratic. :lol:
Remember that up until somewhere around prohibition, it would have been more appropriate to call the democrats the 'right' and the republicans the 'left' as we understand the sides today. An 1864 democrat was for states rights (obviously), low taxes, a muzzled executive branch, etc... republicans of the time supported more federal power, railroad subsidies and national banking.

They did a nearly complete switcheroo in the 20s catalyzed by, as sundry theories go, prohibition/suffrage/WWI/the draft/the Fed/the Income tax/UFOs/racism...

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#62

Post by aurelius » Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:31 am

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:05 am
aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:57 am Voters will be given two very different and distinctive choice which IMO can be surmised as rule of law or dictator.
In terms of rhetoric and popular perception sure. (And I believe those things matter a great deal too).

Not in terms of actual policies.
In most ways that matter, Trump governed pretty much the same as Obama or Biden and in many ways that matter, slightly to the left.

... supreme court appointments notwithstanding, i'll give you that.
I'd argue that the Federal bureaucracy largely hampered many of Trump's efforts. Trump and his allies have spent the 'off-season' figuring out how to get around those roadblocks. A lot of what we think of as 'the way things work' are simply precedents or based on vaguely written laws. Trump has packed the courts with judges that are conservative political activists (see SCOTUS rulings, see Judge Aileen Canon, Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk for examples).

Fiscal Policy: Trump's most significant accomplishment from a fiscal policy standpoint is adding 25% to the national debt in 4 years (mostly attributable to unfunded tax cuts/also known as printing money and giving it to the wealthy). Biden has continued the Democratic precedent (Clinton and Obama) of reducing the deficit.

Continuing with Fiscal policy: Taxes and the IRS are a big difference. I promise you if Democrats can get a majority in the House and a larger majority in the Senate they will redo tax brackets that will be more favorable to low and middle income earners. They would have gone further if 2021 in Machin and Seneca didn't bow to special interest groups.
Now to IRS: Nearly 1,000 taxpayers who make over $1 million annually didn't file taxes multiple times from 2015 to 2020, according to an IRS memo viewed by Insider. Those taxpayers owe a total of over $34 billion as of May 2023. Out of that high-earner non-filer group, 58 earned at least $10 million and owed over $16.5 billion combined. https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-pe ... ns-2023-10
--This isn't even getting into chronic underpayers: The IRS states Microsoft owes $28.9 million in taxes going back to 2004. Microsoft's defense: We only owe $18.9 billion. Like what????? Microsoft has paid $67 billion over that same period. Meaning they underpaid ~30% (or 22%).
How did this go on for so long? Because the Republicans defunded the IRS which did not have the resources to go after the corporations and wealthy individuals. Us lowly wage earners are basically automatically audited by the corporations we work for and banks we use. They send off all of our information to the IRS every year. The IRS is now funded and can audit the top .01%. Presently, Republicans in the House at every opportunity are attempting to defund the IRS. A Trump administration would actively work against the IRS auditing and ensuring the wealthiest among us pay their taxes.

The DOJ operates more independently under Biden than Trump. Many of things Barr did were questionable and the DOJ independence more marginal under Trump. A 2nd Trump term and any independence the DOJ enjoyed would be gone.

I think the difference between another Biden or another Trump administration is very significant.

To now agree with you: It is funny to see so many Republicans complain about Biden who lock, stock, and barrel continued many of Trump's most prominent policies. Biden continued Trump's border policies. Trump's conservative SCOTUS ruled against the Biden administration continuing those policies stating it was beyond the scope of Federal powers and Congress had to act. Biden has continued a more stringent and focused version of Trump's 'trade war' against China. Biden escalated it with the computer chip ban. I don't really see a Trump (or any other) administration handling Ukraine or Israel differently. And on and on.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#63

Post by mikeylikey » Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:53 am

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:31 am This isn't even getting into chronic underpayers: The IRS states Microsoft owes $28.9 million in taxes going back to 2004. Microsoft's defense: We only owe $18.9 billion. Like what?????
How did this go on for so long? Because the Republicans defunded the IRS which did not have the resources to go after the corporations and wealthy individuals. Wanna bet these guys made political donations? The IRS is now funded and can go after them. Republicans in the House at every opportunity are attempting to defund the IRS! A Trump administration would actively work against the IRS auditing and ensuring the wealthiest among us pay their taxes.
If the IRS has insufficient resources to inspect and verify Microsoft's numbers, then on what basis can the IRS claim to know Microsoft reported the wrong numbers?

I submit the real problem is that the tax code is so complicated that it takes (I don't believe these are hyperbolic numbers) thousands of lawyers and accountants working full time all year every year to prepare, file, audit, amend, contest, negotiate, refile, and pay Microsoft's taxes. And of COURSE they are going to arrive at vastly different numbers at the end of a process. This is not a democrat or republican problem.

And LOL at democrats being immune to campaign donations influencing tax enforcement.
Last edited by mikeylikey on Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:47 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#64

Post by alek » Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:35 am

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:02 am My recollection of the politics of that period is not great.
How old are you, and please tell me how you've lived this long.

Asking for a friend.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#65

Post by aurelius » Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:54 am

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:53 amIf the IRS has insufficient resources to inspect and verify Microsoft's numbers, then on what basis can the IRS claim to know Microsoft reported the wrong numbers?
The Inflation Reduction Act allocated an additional $80 billion over the next 10 years to the IRS. The monies are to go to modernization, staffing, and enforcement resources. The enforcement resources are to be focused on the very few and very wealthy non-payers and chronic underpayers (>$400,000 in income). Who is that targeting? Top 5% of income earners is $250,000. Top 1% is $650,000. Probably top 2% or so.

“The resources in the reconciliation package will get us back to historical norms in areas of challenge for the agency — large corporate and global high-net-worth taxpayers.” - IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/08/reconci ... nding.html
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:53 amHow does the IRS know how much Microsoft owes in taxes if Microsoft is lying on their taxes?
You are correct in that the portion Microsoft underpaid on has to do with overseas income and transfers. Which I'm guessing Microsoft made complex to make an audit difficult. Best guess: the IRS had all the banking information but simply not the resources to sift through it and double check Microsoft's taxes. The IRS had to accept what Microsoft submitted. Now they can audit Microsoft and are finding...discrepancies. :lol:

To be fair to Microsoft, they were playing the only game in town. I imagine chronic underpayment of taxes is going to be a common occurrence among US multi-nationals. But for a variety of reasons Microsoft is on the Federal government radar. So they get to be first.
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:53 amI submit the real problem is that the tax code is so complicated that it takes (I don't believe these are hyperbolic numbers) thousands of lawyers and accountants working full time all year every year to prepare, file, audit, amend, contest, negotiate, refile, and pay Microsoft's taxes. And of COURSE they are going to arrive at vastly different numbers at the end of a process. This is not a democrat or republican problem.
I agree that this is a problem.

But again, when called out by the IRS, somehow all of those Microsoft accountants could recrunch 19 years of financials dating back to 2004 very quickly and come up with a new 'correct' number. They were not off by 5%. Not even 10%. It is either 22% or 30% underpayment on taxes owed. :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:53 amAnd LOL at democrats being immune to campaign donations influencing tax enforcement.
The Republicans defunded the IRS so it could not audit wealthy corporations or individuals. The Democrats recently passed a bill fully funding the IRS to audit wealthy corporations and individuals. The House Republicans are attempting to defund the IRS with every budget negotiation so it cannot audit wealthy corporations and individuals. What is not accurate?
Last edited by aurelius on Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:36 pm, edited 10 times in total.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#66

Post by aurelius » Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:54 am

alek wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:35 amHow old are you, and please tell me how you've lived this long.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#67

Post by dw » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:21 pm

Wait... Lincoln said "that is cool"?

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#68

Post by mikeylikey » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:23 pm

dw wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:21 pm Wait... Lincoln said "that is cool"?
I thought the famous Lincoln quote was "don't believe everything you read on the internet."

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#69

Post by alek » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:25 pm

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:54 am
alek wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:35 amHow old are you, and please tell me how you've lived this long.

Asking for a friend.
I do pilates and eat homeopathic vegan.
Image

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#70

Post by aurelius » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:28 pm

dw wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:21 pmWait... Lincoln said "that is cool"?
I know right. I checked another source before posting:

https://quod.lib.umich.edu/l/lincoln/li ... w=fulltext

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#71

Post by dw » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:51 pm

First blog post I could find about it:

https://joemckeever.com/wp/abraham-lincoln-that/

Apparently it meant annoying then, and didn't signify aesthetic approval until the 1920s.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#72

Post by JonA » Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:02 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:35 pm So, the question which comes up every 4 years:

Is this the year when the 2 major candidates are so bad that a 3rd party finally has a shot?

Related. I have tended to discount the utility of 3rd party POTUS candidates on the basis that without changing congress and state legislatures, electing Ron Paul (or Bill Mahr or The Rock or Whoever) president wouldn't really change much, and thus 3p potus candidates are a waste of time. I may have changed my mind on that; I heard a great counter argument on a podcast the other day which boiled down to look, you need ballot access and exposure to get 3p local govt & US congresscritters elected, and the best way to get that is with a viable 3p potus candidacy. Thought that was a darn good point. If the election was tomorrow and he's on the ballot, I am voting for RFK Jr. Bite me.
At least in today's Senate, a 3rd party VP might actually wield some significant influence. Maybe more so than the President.

Maybe the original idea of putting 2nd place into the VP spot wasn't such a bad idea.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#73

Post by mikeylikey » Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:16 pm

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:54 amThe Inflation Reduction Act allocated an additional $80 billion over the next 10 years to the IRS. The monies are to go to modernization, staffing, and enforcement resources.
A) At least half of this money will be just plain wasted on internal agency stuff that has nothing to do with the IRS's actual operating mandate. Like any other government agency

B) A big chunk of this is going to be needed just to offset retirements, (replaced with new and less experienced millennials) and wage increases due to inflation. I predict no more than a 10% actual increase in IRS headcount.

C) If by some miracle the additional expense ends up resulting in more actual man-hours spent auditing people (and I have my doubts) it is far from a given that marginal collections will increase with marginal audit effort in anywhere near a linear fashion. IRS agents already go for the easiest low hanging fruit. Twice the audits will not yield twice the collections.
The enforcement resources are to be focused on the very few and very wealthy non-payers and chronic underpayers (>$400,000 in income). Who is that targeting? Top 5% of income earners is $250,000. Top 1% is $650,000. Probably top 2% or so.
People who can afford tax attorneys and lawyers. Which means the IRS also has to pay lawyers. Again, it shouldn't be hard to convince you that the IRS does the easy stuff first.
“The resources in the reconciliation package will get us back to historical norms in areas of challenge for the agency — large corporate and global high-net-worth taxpayers.” - IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig
And you believed that story Fredo? You believed that?
The Republicans defunded the IRS so it could not audit wealthy corporations or individuals. The Democrats recently passed a bill fully funding the IRS to audit wealthy corporations and individuals. The House Republicans are attempting to defund the IRS with every budget negotiation so it cannot audit wealthy corporations and individuals. What is not accurate?
My claim, which is a subtle one, is that it won't really matter. Government agencies of a certain size have an inverse exponential cost/utility function. You spend $10 you get $5 of benefit. You spend $100 you get $9 of benefit. You spend $200, you get $11 of benefit. I claim this as an axiom and it is therefore not subject to evidentiary scrutiny.

EDIT: And in the past 10-20 ish years, the switchover from basically everyone filing paper returns to basically everyone e-filing ought to have resulted in a MASSIVE increase in spare capacity at the IRS with zero additional dollars spent. And yet they are further behind than ever.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#74

Post by JonA » Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:48 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:16 pm EDIT: And in the past 10-20 ish years, the switchover from basically everyone filing paper returns to basically everyone e-filing ought to have resulted in a MASSIVE increase in spare capacity at the IRS with zero additional dollars spent. And yet they are further behind than ever.
Well it's a lot more work and expense for them. Now they have to print off all the returns first before they can process them.


/s

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#75

Post by aurelius » Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:56 pm

mikeylikey wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 1:16 pmA bunch of conjecture based on poor assumption and biases with no facts.
Point 1) you describe modernization as waste. I suggest you go look at how the IRS has been operating because it has been defunded for so long and what the ability to modernize means. They still do a lot of shit by paper processes in 2023. They use obsolete equipment that has to have parts fabricated from scratch because the manufacturer has been out of business for so long.
Point 2) yep, a lot is to offset retirements and bring in new staff. Kind of important for an organization to function so don't know your point here.
Point 3) This disagrees with every analysis I have read. Yes, the IRS will 'gain' a lot more by auditing the corporations and wealthy few than they will spend.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#76

Post by DCR » Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:56 am

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:31 amI think the difference between another Biden or another Trump administration is very significant.
Given the last six months of the Trump admin, everything that he’s been saying publicly, and all the shit that the scum around him have been leaking, I agree entirely and am unsure how this even is a topic of dispute unless one does not believe him/them or believes that he/they will be foiled by heroic “adults in the room.”

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#77

Post by mikeylikey » Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:45 am

aurelius wrote: Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:56 pm Point 1) you describe modernization as waste.
No I did not, sir.

I said it will be wasted before they ever get around to modernizing. Most of the modernizing will never actually happen.
Point 3) This disagrees with every analysis I have read. Yes, the IRS will 'gain' a lot more by auditing the corporations and wealthy few than they will spend.
I don't dispute that the additional revenue to the government is some positive multiple of the dollars spent auditing.

The analyses that you have read probably went something like this:
"The IRS currently raises about $2.50 in additional revenue per $1 spent auditing and contesting returns. But when they audit Rich People, that ratio is something like $6 to $10 for every $1 spent auditing. So add $80b in budget to audit big rich guys and bob's your uncle, a trillion in new revenue, just out of thin air!"

And I have three points:

1) why the extra 80 billion? Just shift your current strategy with current spending and triple revenue. If it works as good as you say, come back and we'll talk about more money.
2) as I already said, a paucity of the $80b will actually end up going to new audits at the end of the day, so this will raise nowhere NEAR the most optimistic sums
3) Even if you could get the trillion dollars, that new revenue is not Free Money. Just because it is coming from people who 'should' have paid it before, it is still a trillion dollars that the government now has and the private sector now doesn't. It's a trillion dollars that is now in the treasury and not being spent on factories, research and development, buildings, and yes some jets and yachts too. The point is, this whole notion of "we're going to catch tax cheats and reduce the deficit without raising taxes" misses the fact that catching tax cheats is, by definition, RAISING TAXES - it's just raising taxes on the least sympathetic group of people. But the basic macroeconomic impacts of a trillion dollars in additional tax collections don't just cease to apply the because those collections are coming from people who ought to have paid them in the first place.

I'm not advocating for billionaire tax cheats or for letting billionaires get away with tax cheating I'm just saying there is no free lunch here. And since this is the potus 2024 thread, I would circle back to my point that the differences between the parties and thus POTUS choices on this issue are mostly for show, in terms of impact to my own life.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#78

Post by BostonRugger » Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:54 am

Vivek went out there like it was the Comedy Central Roast of Haley and Christie last night.

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#79

Post by JonA » Thu Dec 07, 2023 10:40 am

Offer a 10% commission to IRS employees on recovered audit findings and watch John Doe down in corporate audits develop a sophisticated machine learned AI to catch every single mistake Apple has ever made on its tax returns.

(And watch every audit for the lower class disappear)

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Re: 2024 POTUS ELECTON

#80

Post by mikeylikey » Thu Dec 07, 2023 10:50 am

JonA wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 10:40 am Offer a 10% commission to IRS employees on recovered audit findings and watch John Doe down in corporate audits develop a sophisticated machine learned AI to catch every single mistake Apple has ever made on its tax returns.

(And watch every audit for the lower class disappear)
You're just wrong. If I am an IRS agent paid on commission, I am going to spend most of my time auditing guys like your plumber for the $35,000 in cash jobs he did on weekends last year. Which will be easy enough to find by just pulling his bank statements and the purchase paperwork on that new F250 Limited in his driveway. Super easy, because the tax code holds you guilty till proven innocent. The ideal target for an IRS auditor is people who have just enough money to have an incentive to avoid taxes, and not enough to afford to fight it.

Also, pretty important question: does the IRS man get his bonus for finding the discrepancy, or when the shortage is actually received by the treasury?


Look, collecting All The Taxes is a lot like getting rid of All The Drugs. You can either grind away at the small time dealers, and never make a dent, or you can go after the big guys at the top, which simply makes their competitors more profitable thus increasing the total supply of drugs. The only solution is not to play. The analogous behavior with taxes is to simplify, a lot. Stop using the tax code as a wealth redistribution vehicle. Tax gross receipts or gross consumption or gross assets or some smaller fraction of each, and then simply write checks to people deemed worthy of some manner or other of state largesse.

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