chatGPT

[5hout]

@omaniphil already hit on how this will wreck patent agent/attorney work. Way too much of a patent application, once you've got claims nailed down, is completely routine. Same as above, a custom implementation. Little bit of extra training and you can probably fire a pile of attorneys and replace a few of them with a patent illustrator. Keep the best attorneys/agents around to help with claims/dealing with PTO, but the people sitting around with the drawings and claims in front of them mechanically writing descriptions of each pictured element and how it relates to the other pictured elements? GTFO.

I was inhouse, but left to go back to a firm a year ago to just do Prep/Pros due to the better lifestyle and money. This week I've started to regret that decision due to ChatGPT. Time to go learn how to be a welder or plumber.

Counter above: There's a lot of ruin in a system? When I was a summer clerk at a firm they still had a pool of word processors and were using Dictaphones to draft applications, no claim drafting/app drafting software at all. A bunch of women with headphones, tiny recorders and Microsoft Word. Getting people of that ilk to let AI help out would seem to be an impossible task.

You can probably outcompete that for a long time simply by having the finest in 90s/00s tech. More seriously, with a competent legal secretary/a regular secretary and someone that can do good drawings (assuming your doing mechanical stuff) I'd bet the (money+lifestyle)/stress is very good provided you've got the inventor sourcing taken care of.

[5hout]

All that said, a lot of chatGPT answers look good until you really read them and I'd tune down the overall excitement from "this is big" to "this is the pebble showing people to upskill or get fucked in 5-10 years".

Good rant/agreed with most of it.

Strongly disagree with this. ChatGPT, in it's current state, is a bigger jump from solving problems without the internet to solving problems with the internet. I've been using it daily to automate, so far, literally weeks of work away (in just 3 days). So have a bunch of other people I talk to. Not just in software dev. My CEO just used it to write a blog post on an important business trend we're seeing in our industry. I asked it to write up the user stories (and then asked it to estimate them) for a very widely defined software problem and it did a better job than 80% of software architects would have because it included tickets with reasonable estimates for the gotchas most of them would have missed in this instance. I'm not sure "Product Manager" is a realistic job anymore with this thing AS IS.

It's not 5-10 years away lol. It's now. Well -- it's a year or two away because that's how long this will take to really be adopted at the scale required.

This is absolutely at a level most Data Scientists and myself (ML engineer) didn't think was possible for another 5 years. 10 years??? They might actually complete their mission in 10 years at this rate (an actual AI). Even if I don't actually think that's possible to the level non-technical people seem to think -- I'm not sure most people will be able to tell the difference when Open AI releases the product they're actually iterating toward next decade.

Agree with your caveat, but would add: A lot of that seems to be the kind of bullshit writing production where all you need is reasonable copy of length X produced. It doesn't have to be amazing, it simply has to fit the bill. This is the kind of word production that was plausibly going to be the first thing to be automated (i.e. sportswriting but in business). The Project Management stuff is interesting, but also (depending on industry) was already pretty highly automated. Those jobs though I could see being screwed on a much tighter timespan.

[cgeorg]

Has someone asked it to make them a training plan yet?

[augeleven]

Has someone asked it to make them a training plan yet?

Not what I was expecting…

Prompt: Write a training plan for someone powerlifting and running a half marathon .

Powerlifting and running a half marathon are two very different types of activities that require different training approaches. Here is a general outline for a training plan that combines elements of both powerlifting and running:

Determine your goals: What are you hoping to achieve with this training plan? Do you want to improve your powerlifting lifts, or are you more interested in running a faster half marathon?
Establish a base level of fitness: Before you start any specific training for powerlifting or running, it's important to establish a base level of fitness. This might involve a combination of cardio and strength training to improve your overall conditioning.
Focus on powerlifting: Once you've established a solid base of fitness, it's time to start focusing on powerlifting. This might involve a combination of heavy compound lifts (such as squats, deadlifts, and bench press), accessory exercises (such as rows and lateral raises), and mobility work.
Incorporate running: As you progress with your powerlifting training, it's important to also incorporate running into your routine. This might involve starting with shorter runs and gradually building up to longer distances. It's important to listen to your body and not push yourself too hard too fast, as this can increase your risk of injury.
Periodize your training: To achieve the best results, it's important to periodize your training. This means organizing your training into specific cycles or phases, with each phase focusing on a specific aspect of your fitness. For example, you might have a strength phase, a power phase, and an endurance phase.
Recovery and rest: Recovery and rest are just as important as the actual training itself. Make sure to schedule regular rest days and incorporate active recovery techniques (such as stretching and foam rolling) into your routine.
Review and adjust: As you progress through your training plan, it's important to review your progress and make any necessary adjustments. This might involve increasing or decreasing the intensity or volume of your training, or making changes to your nutrition and recovery strategies.
Remember, it's important to consult with a qualified coach or trainer to develop a training plan that is tailored to your specific goals and needs

[augeleven]

Tried again. Unimpressed. Still would stick to juggernaut AI or… just run GZCL.

Prompt: Write a weekly schedule for training powerlifting and long distance running

Here is a sample weekly schedule for training powerlifting and long distance running:

Monday:

Rest day or active recovery (e.g. yoga, foam rolling, light cardio)
Tuesday:

Powerlifting training session: focus on squat, bench press, and deadlift
Warm up with mobility exercises and light weights
Perform 3-4 sets of 8-12 reps for each lift, with progressively heavier weights
Finish with accessory exercises for muscle balance and injury prevention (e.g. glute bridges, single leg squats, rows)
Wednesday:

Long distance running: aim for 45-60 minutes at an easy pace
Incorporate some form drills, such as high knees and butt kicks, to improve running efficiency
Finish with a 5-10 minute cool down and stretching
Thursday:

Rest day or active recovery
Friday:

Powerlifting training session: focus on bench press, deadlift, and squat
Warm up with mobility exercises and light weights
Perform 3-4 sets of 8-12 reps for each lift, with progressively heavier weights
Finish with accessory exercises for muscle balance and injury prevention (e.g. glute bridges, single leg squats, rows)
Saturday:

Long distance running: aim for 60-90 minutes at an easy pace
Incorporate some hills or intervals to challenge your cardiovascular endurance
Finish with a 5-10 minute cool down and stretching
Sunday:

Rest day or active recovery
Note: This is just a sample schedule and can be adjusted based on your individual goals, training experience, and schedule. It's important to listen to your body and make sure you are getting enough rest and recovery between workouts. You may also want to incorporate other types of cross-training, such as cycling or swimming, to vary your training and reduce the risk of overuse injuries. Consult with a coach or certified personal trainer to develop a personalized training plan that meets your needs and helps you achieve your goals safely and effectively

[Manveer]

I did ask it to make a 4-week hypertrophy block, a 4-week strength block, and a 2-week peaking block for powerlifting. It was reasonable. Basically what you’d find in boilerplate programs.

[FredM]

Tried again. Unimpressed. Still would stick to juggernaut AI or… just run GZCL.

ROFL. You're unimpressed a Chatbot came up with a reasonable nuanced answer that's 100% better than most answers would be from real trainers that haven't tried to train for both???

Or that that same chatbot spit out a fairly reasonable program that would probably get most novice and early intermediates (novice or intermediate in one or both of the two training modalities) fairly far?

What does impress you?

Comparing JuggernautAI or EvolveAI is hysterical. The only reason those are "better" is because they're starting from a base program written by actual experts. If OpenAI paid Chad Wesley Smith or Mike T to train ChatGPT on training program questions for even like a week, those apps would be obsoleted overnight.

I tried. I'm beyond impressed.

I asked it for a program with workouts on MWF and a focus on the big 3 and unilaterial accessories that addressed core strength and hip mobility weaknesses.
Example day:

Monday:

Warm up with 5-10 minutes of light cardio (e.g. jogging, biking, rowing) and dynamic stretches for the hips, legs, and upper body.

Barbell squat: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Bench press: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Barbell rows: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Bulgarian split squats: 3 sets of 8-10 reps per leg with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Plank holds: 3 sets of 30-60 seconds. Rest for 30-60 seconds between sets.


Then I asked it to increase the intensity and drop the volume and sub out some accessories to focus more on hamstring and shoulder strength.

Monday:

Warm up with 5-10 minutes of light cardio (e.g. jogging, biking, rowing) and dynamic stretches for the hips, legs, and upper body.

Barbell squat: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

Incline bench press: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

Romanian deadlifts: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

Farmer's carries: 3 sets of 20 yards with a heavy weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

[augeleven]

Ok, I have no idea what juggernaut AI does, so apologies there.
I guess it is cool that HALgpt was able to make that coherent a summation, considering it’s a chatbot, but it’s like t-nation level info.

Here’s another weird answer to a prompt I asked it:

Write out a reharmonisation of Giant Steps.

Sure! Here is a possible reharmonization of "Giant Steps," using a sequence of ii-V-I progressions:

Verse:

Cm7 F7 Bbmaj7 Eb7 Abmaj7 Db7 Gbmaj7
Fm7 Bb7 Ebmaj7 Ab7 Dbmaj7 Gb7 Cbmaj7
Chorus:

Cm7 F7 Bbmaj7 Eb7 Abmaj7 Db7 Gbmaj7 C7
Fm7 Bb7 Ebmaj7 Ab7 Dbmaj7 Gb7 Cbmaj7 F7
The original "Giant Steps" progression alternates between ii-V progressions in the key of C major and ii-V progressions in the key of B major. The reharmonization I provided above replaces these with a sequence of ii-V-I progressions in the relative minor keys of Am and Gm. This gives the tune a more contemplative, introspective feel, while still maintaining the fast-paced, energetic nature of the original.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any questions or if you'd like further clarification

ETA - These aren’t the chords to Giant Steps and the reharm doesn’t have any minor iiVs in Gm or Am. I guess it gets more lawyer-types than jazznerd types interacting with it

[omaniphil]

Tried again. Unimpressed. Still would stick to juggernaut AI or… just run GZCL.

ROFL. You're unimpressed a Chatbot came up with a reasonable nuanced answer that's 100% better than most answers would be from real trainers that haven't tried to train for both???

Or that that same chatbot spit out a fairly reasonable program that would probably get most novice and early intermediates (novice or intermediate in one or both of the two training modalities) fairly far?

What does impress you?

Comparing JuggernautAI or EvolveAI is hysterical. The only reason those are "better" is because they're starting from a base program written by actual experts. If OpenAI paid Chad Wesley Smith or Mike T to train ChatGPT on training program questions for even like a week, those apps would be obsoleted overnight.

I tried. I'm beyond impressed.

I asked it for a program with workouts on MWF and a focus on the big 3 and unilaterial accessories that addressed core strength and hip mobility weaknesses.
Example day:

Monday:

Warm up with 5-10 minutes of light cardio (e.g. jogging, biking, rowing) and dynamic stretches for the hips, legs, and upper body.

Barbell squat: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Bench press: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Barbell rows: 3 sets of 8-10 reps with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Bulgarian split squats: 3 sets of 8-10 reps per leg with a moderate weight. Rest for 60-90 seconds between sets.

Plank holds: 3 sets of 30-60 seconds. Rest for 30-60 seconds between sets.


Then I asked it to increase the intensity and drop the volume and sub out some accessories to focus more on hamstring and shoulder strength.

Monday:

Warm up with 5-10 minutes of light cardio (e.g. jogging, biking, rowing) and dynamic stretches for the hips, legs, and upper body.

Barbell squat: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

Incline bench press: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

Romanian deadlifts: 3 sets of 4-6 reps with a heavy weight. Rest for 2-3 minutes between sets.

People seem to have a hard time grasping the doors that have been opened by this technology. Sure, what it does right now is impressive, but it's not earth shattering. They don't realize though that it was trained by probably a team of 10-20 generalists doing reinforcement learning for maybe a couple of years. You get tens of thousands of experts in a wide array of subject matter domains, and it will be mindblowing.

[FredM]

People seem to have a hard time grasping the doors that have been opened by this technology. Sure, what it does right now is impressive, but it's not earth shattering. They don't realize though that it was trained by probably a team of 10-20 generalists doing reinforcement learning for maybe a couple of years. You get tens of thousands of experts in a wide array of subject matter domains, and it will be mindblowing.

BIngo. Although, again, I'd quibble that it's pretty earth shattering already -- at least if you're in programming because those "generalists" definitely included real programmers and as a result the state this AI is in for my industry is face melting.

@augeleven

Not sure if you're actually trying to get value out of this thing or just testing it to prove to yourself Skynet isn't coming for you and your job...

But if it's the former, free advice:

This is a Reinforcement Learning Model that was trained by human beings over the course of years. The training looks very roughly like this:

1. Ingest data from the internet (questions mapped to answers -- not literally but again, we're being rough here)
2. Have a real human being ask a question and provide him/her with some answers (that you scraped from the internet)
3. Allow that human being to rank the answers your "AI" provided. Record that.
4. Rinse and Repeat (retrain the model)

It probably helps a ton if you're a programmer to intuit how to ask it questions because you spend so much of your time cosplaying as this chatbot on google/stackoverflow and daydream about automating that tedious "research" with some code that just scrapes google/stackoverflow and executes the code it finds until your problem is solved. This is basically that program.

If that doesn't make any sense to you -- try asking it questions that you would be able to reasonably answer if you had no experience in the domain of that question but were allowed a few days to research the domain via google searches.

[augeleven]

@fredm I’m not worried about my job as an elementary school teacher, and I’m super intrigued by this. Also your training plan looks cooler than mine.

I had it generate some lesson plans, and while I wouldn’t use them to teach with, they are definitely plausible enough to pass a cursory administrator glance. Some people I know are considering using them for grant writing.

[FredM]

@fredm I’m not worried about my job as an elementary school teacher, and I’m super intrigued by this. Also your training plan looks cooler than mine.

I had it generate some lesson plans, and while I wouldn’t use them to teach with, they are definitely plausible enough to pass a cursory administrator glance. Some people I know are considering using them for grant writing.

I would bet money it would generate better lesson plans than you realize given better prompts.

Again - just trying to be helpful because I think this is cool and people should use it to upskill - it helps to phrase your questions in a way you'd phrase them to a recent college grad with a degree completely outside your domain that knows how to use google.

This still isn't an "AI" in the sense most people think of AI. It's a psychotically advanced computer program that's managed to distill human ranked google research side projects into a chatbot that "speaks" plain english.

[hector]

@fredm I’m not worried about my job as an elementary school teacher, and I’m super intrigued by this. Also your training plan looks cooler than mine.

I had it generate some lesson plans, and while I wouldn’t use them to teach with, they are definitely plausible enough to pass a cursory administrator glance. Some people I know are considering using them for grant writing.

There will also be a chatgpt for grant reading as well, right?

If yes, I wonder what part, and how much, of the loop will be human.

[JonA]

1. Ingest data from the internet (questions mapped to answers -- not literally but again, we're being rough here)
2. Have a real human being ask a question and provide him/her with some answers (that you scraped from the internet)
3. Allow that human being to rank the answers your "AI" provided. Record that.
4. Rinse and Repeat

That's why I'm not too terrible worried about it. It basically just regurgitates what we've trained it to think is "good". As a result, its subject to the same negative feedback loops that plague every other informational source, from Usenet, expertsexchange, stack overflow, wikipedia etc. As long as it's only processing curated info, it will have good info, but will necessarily be limited. When it's information base is broadened, the quality decreases and it becomes useless, out of date, and heavily influenced by people who *think* they are experts.

I think the real danger is that people might trust it as an accurate information source, just like they trust their social media feeds.

[Skander]

This still isn't an "AI" in the sense most people think of AI. It's a psychotically advanced computer program that's managed to distill human ranked google research side projects into a chatbot that "speaks" plain english.

A colleague got it to produce a brief poem in classical Arabic about the dangers of AI, and then an analysis of it's own poetry writing. It was all surprising decent, though the poem was actually understandable, so not a good classical Arabic poem.

[Skander]

The analysis of the poem was in English btw, as was the prompt

[hector]

This still isn't an "AI" in the sense most people think of AI. It's a psychotically advanced computer program that's managed to distill human ranked google research side projects into a chatbot that "speaks" plain english.

A colleague got it to produce a brief poem in classical Arabic about the dangers of AI, and then an analysis of it's own poetry writing. It was all surprising decent, though the poem was actually understandable, so not a good classical Arabic poem.

Not nearly as impressive as Classical Arabic, but when I asked in Spanish if it wanted to talk in Spanish, it was on point.

[convergentsum]

Ok, I have no idea what juggernaut AI does, so apologies there.
I guess it is cool that HALgpt was able to make that coherent a summation, considering it’s a chatbot, but it’s like t-nation level info.

Here’s another weird answer to a prompt I asked it:

Write out a reharmonisation of Giant Steps.

Sure! Here is a possible reharmonization of "Giant Steps," using a sequence of ii-V-I progressions:

Verse:

Cm7 F7 Bbmaj7 Eb7 Abmaj7 Db7 Gbmaj7
Fm7 Bb7 Ebmaj7 Ab7 Dbmaj7 Gb7 Cbmaj7
Chorus:

Cm7 F7 Bbmaj7 Eb7 Abmaj7 Db7 Gbmaj7 C7
Fm7 Bb7 Ebmaj7 Ab7 Dbmaj7 Gb7 Cbmaj7 F7
The original "Giant Steps" progression alternates between ii-V progressions in the key of C major and ii-V progressions in the key of B major. The reharmonization I provided above replaces these with a sequence of ii-V-I progressions in the relative minor keys of Am and Gm. This gives the tune a more contemplative, introspective feel, while still maintaining the fast-paced, energetic nature of the original.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any questions or if you'd like further clarification

ETA - These aren’t the chords to Giant Steps and the reharm doesn’t have any minor iiVs in Gm or Am. I guess it gets more lawyer-types than jazznerd types interacting with it

Yeah, i'm getting strong "bluffer" vibes from it. If a human talked to me about Giant Steps that way I would be very confident that they didn't know what the hell they were talking about. I toyed with the idea of listing the errors, but there are just too many.
I appreciate the point being made that it gets better depending on how it's trained etc., but wouldn't that just give you more and more sophisticated bluffing? Is this thing ever going to be capable of insight? Will it ever be able to "hear" and critically assess its suggested reharm? Come to think of it, music might be the ultimate Turing test.

Imagine trying to create some exotic form of music you're unfamiliar with, for me maybe an Indian Raga, without listening to it, only reading criticism and educational materal about it. Assuming we unwisely accepted the challenege, our best efforts would be similar to the AI's here: I'd throw together a few sequences that didn't depart too far from the written examples I'd had access to, and attempt to justify it by stringing together a bunch of technical terms I don't really understand.
The only way I could do better is by actually listening to the music, allowing myself to respond emotionally to it, and probably I'd need to immerse myself somewhat in the wider culture to really make sense of what is really going on there. I love the blues, but how much does it rely on the historical context that it arose from?

On the other hand, those AI paintings are impressive to me, who is not a visual artist. Maybe to actual painters, those images look as inhuman as the generated music of microsoft songsmith sounds to me?

More generally, you might be able to get applicable material from this AI by using a carefully crafted query (similar to the artform that is effective use of google), but is it ever going to look you over and suggest something you hadn't already thought of, the way a human expert might break out his intuition and depart from the brief from time to time?

Few things are more dangerous than a convincing bluffer. One day this thing is going to offer plausibly bland advice about something, people are going to project more wisdom onto it than it deserves, and disater will strike (no change there)

[omaniphil]

Is this thing ever going to be capable of insight? Will it ever be able to "hear" and critically assess its suggested reharm? Come to think of it, music might be the ultimate Turing test.

No, and probably not anytime in the near future. But I think you underestimate how much of our daily lives, jobs and otherwise are spent doing things that also don't involve insight. Most of what we do is just "work", and this could be pretty revolutionary in eliminating much of that.

[convergentsum]

Is this thing ever going to be capable of insight? Will it ever be able to "hear" and critically assess its suggested reharm? Come to think of it, music might be the ultimate Turing test.

No, and probably not anytime in the near future. But I think you underestimate how much of our daily lives, jobs and otherwise are spent doing things that also don't involve insight. Most of what we do is just "work", and this could be pretty revolutionary in eliminating much of that.

Lots of it, sure. But even when I'm on autopilot, there's still some layer of human judgement going on, scanning for unusual dangers and opportunities.
It comes down to how we use it, like any tool. I'm not arguing against literal autopilot on aeroplanes, for example. But AI will be marketed as a replacement for humans, and if people start to believe that hype, it'll be a costly mistake I expect. Aeroplanes should still carry pilots, even when they're not the ones doing most of the flying.