Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

[aurelius]

I think the US is in a decent position regarding the impending recession. US already has fiscal policy that is in place to meet the downturn in demand (I know many of you hate Keynes). Very rarely is fiscal policy ahead of economic downturns. For instance, the fiscal policy to address stagflation in the 1970’s was passed AFTER the recession was over.

I see the Fed’s monetary policy as addressing the issues of too much ‘free’ money that has been a staple of the US economy since 2009. We had to address that at some point. IMO that is what the latest hike was about (inflation was already going down). The asset pumping was a big driver of inflation and the increasing wealth gap.

The wild card is the global economy. China’s economy looks to be going off the rails. I don’t think they can do anything to change that. Too much ‘created’ demand has caught up to them. Germany’s favorite thing to do is force austerity on EU members. Which is problematic.

[Cellist]

The pound Sterling continues to fall, probably hit parity against a strong USD pretty soon and continue to weaken.

[GlasgowJock]

I think I'm in alignment with Thomas Sowell's views on trickle down economics to be honest:

Economist Thomas Sowell consistently argues that trickle-down economics has never been advocated by any economist, writing in a 2014 column:

Let's do something completely unexpected: Let's stop and think. Why would anyone advocate that we "give" something to A in hopes that it would trickle down to B? Why in the world would any sane person not give it to B and cut out the middleman? But all this is moot, because there was no trickle-down theory about giving something to anybody in the first place.

The "trickle-down" theory cannot be found in even the most voluminous scholarly studies of economic theories – including J. A. Schumpeter's monumental History of Economic Analysis, more than a thousand pages long and printed in very small type.

[dw]

What they taught us in high school was that "trickle-down economics" referred to supply-side economics, the latter being the idea that tax cuts for the wealthy would lead to more capital investment which would increase the demand for employment, and therefore wages. This was contrasted with Keynesian economics which favored wealth transfers to the poor which would be spent on consumer goods which would trickle up to capital investment. Iirc.

It occurs to me now these are actually not economic theories per se but differences of opinion about fiscal tactics within a specific context. Without the context of an actual economy they both reduce to absurdity.

[SnakePlissken]

So Liz Truss resigned as PM, I've heard that the news in the UK is that there's a high risk of insolvency, and now there's a rumor that the internet and phone lines going to Shetland were sabotaged (presumably by Russia).

[cgeorgiev]

I'm scared bros: the future fucking sucks.

[hector]

So Liz Truss resigned as PM, I've heard that the news in the UK is that there's a high risk of insolvency, and now there's a rumor that the internet and phone lines going to Shetland were sabotaged (presumably by Russia).

I'm scared bros: the future fucking sucks.

If we get food shortages that will make for interesting times.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 8c8d5fa3f4

[GlasgowJock]

So Liz Truss resigned as PM, I've heard that the news in the UK is that there's a high risk of insolvency, and now there's a rumor that the internet and phone lines going to Shetland were sabotaged (presumably by Russia).

The whole Conservative party is filled with TINOs (Tories in name only); Truss was a Liberal Democrat in her youth. It's been fractured since the days of John Major when it comes to Europe. We really need political parties that are relevant for the 21st
century.

The UK's f*cked regardless of whether it pursues high tax, high spend, low growth or not, we've been hooked on QE and low interest rates for too long like everywhere else. Post covid supply issues, global inflation, a European land war and OPEC etc throttling oil supplies is largely outwith our control. We've reversed our two year energy cap and interest rates for mortgages are only going to increase, plus everyone wants to go on strike this winter.

We're in a slightly better position than the EU (Germany) though. Faced with their manufacturing industry grinding to a halt the EU will sacrifice Ukraine this winter imo for that sweet, sweet Russian oil.

Mega recession baby yeeeaaaa.

[EggMcMuffin]

Kombucha is nearly $5 a bottle, son of bitch, someone needs their asses kicked

[aurelius]

Kombucha is nearly $5 a bottle, son of bitch, someone needs their asses kicked

You know it's crazy when kombucha becomes unaffordable. I for one plan to riot if Uber Eats becomes too expensive. Get my own food...what am I? A peasant?

[EggMcMuffin]

I can actually barely afford to eat, but I'm on a student budget. But I miss being able to afford Kombucha. I may have to start brewing my own hipster hooch.

[CheekiBreekiFitness]

I can actually barely afford to eat, but I'm on a student budget. But I miss being able to afford Kombucha. I may have to start brewing my own hipster hooch.

Try kvass !

[mouse]

Kombucha is nearly $5 a bottle, son of bitch, someone needs their asses kicked

I had to google what that stuff actually is because I honestly didn't know...

You couldn't pay me $5 to drink that shit.

[hector]

Kombucha is nearly $5 a bottle, son of bitch, someone needs their asses kicked

I had to google what that stuff actually is because I honestly didn't know...

You couldn't pay me $5 to drink that shit.

The right flavors are delicious.

[mbasic]

down to a 25 day supply of diesel ... lowest its been in a while.

--------------------

say if the war was to end in a favorable, timely, and definitive way ..... I wonder what the US and world economy does after that?

Explode? as in a positive way?

Is it going to be the same cluster fuck when we got out of the covid lockdown phase? .... pent up demand being released?

[aurelius]

down to a 25 day supply of diesel ... lowest its been in a while.

--------------------

say if the war was to end in a favorable, timely, and definitive way ..... I wonder what the US and world economy does after that?

Explode? as in a positive way?

Is it going to be the same cluster fuck when we got out of the covid lockdown phase? .... pent up demand being released?

Meh. The war ending will not impact the global economy. Western nations are too busy decoupling from authoritarian regimes (China) and reorganizing their supply chains. As long as the Putin regime or equivalent is in charge of Russia, the West needs to economically isolate Russia.

Russia and oil shortages was always a red herring. Russia just don't make that much. In fact, Europe went overboard in bringing in natural gas and now has so much natural gas that the price for natural gas has gone negative:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/e ... index.html

Not to say Europe does not have some hard times ahead.

Now OPEC+ intentionally reducing output to drive up prices is something. I for one want the Biden Admin to make clear that if the Saudis cut production by 1 barrel all US support of Saudi Arabia will cease. What is the fucking point of propping up the Saudi Royal family if they fuck us every chance they get? Pull all support of Saudi Arabia (leaving them to deal with Iran alone) and end sanctions against Iran (then buy all the Iranian oil).

[SnakePlissken]

down to a 25 day supply of diesel ... lowest its been in a while.

--------------------

say if the war was to end in a favorable, timely, and definitive way ..... I wonder what the US and world economy does after that?

Explode? as in a positive way?

Is it going to be the same cluster fuck when we got out of the covid lockdown phase? .... pent up demand being released?

Meh. The war ending will not impact the global economy. Western nations are too busy decoupling from authoritarian regimes (China) and reorganizing their supply chains. As long as the Putin regime or equivalent is in charge of Russia, the West needs to economically isolate Russia.

Russia and oil shortages was always a red herring. Russia just don't make that much. In fact, Europe went overboard in bringing in natural gas and now has so much natural gas that the price for natural gas has gone negative:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/e ... index.html

Not to say Europe does not have some hard times ahead.

Now OPEC+ intentionally reducing output to drive up prices is something. I for one want the Biden Admin to make clear that if the Saudis cut production by 1 barrel all US support of Saudi Arabia will cease. What is the fucking point of propping up the Saudi Royal family if they fuck us every chance they get? Pull all support of Saudi Arabia (leaving them to deal with Iran alone) and end sanctions against Iran (then buy all the Iranian oil).

To play Devil's Advocate for the Saudis. Oil is one of the most volatile commodities around and since their nation is totally dependent on it, they want to keep the price stable. They know that flooding the market with oil will drive down prices and their profits; they also know that the world is looking to get away from oil at some point so why should they give into our requests and lose out?

[aurelius]

To play Devil's Advocate for the Saudis. Oil is one of the most volatile commodities around and since their nation is totally dependent on it, they want to keep the price stable. They know that flooding the market with oil will drive down prices and their profits; they also know that the world is looking to get away from oil at some point so why should they give into our requests and lose out?

Oil is not that volatile. Saudi Arabia (and multiple other countries) have based their entire economy around it.

The US gets most of its oil from Canada at 62% of crude oil imports. The next biggest is Mexico at 10%. The Saudi's are only 6%. We are really discussing global market and OPEC+ is trying to manipulate prices. Saudi Arabia, our supposed ally, is leading the way on that. Fuck them if they won't be our ally. We don't need them for oil. There are other gas stations.

The Saudi Royal Family needs US support to remain in power. Where are they going to get their military equipment and training from...Russia? China?
Everyone knows China is a bad deal now. The new Prince that runs the show over there is a real piece of untrustworthy shit that the US needs to cut ties with anyway.

Side bar: I have wanted the US out of the Middle East for some time. WHY?????????

[GlasgowJock]

The Saudi Royal Family needs US support to remain in power.

Indeed.

I'd say leave MBS and the local judiciaries/clerics to indulge in their internecine shenanigans. Unfortunately, the UK has found itself increasingly reliant on KSA (and Kuwaiti) oil as it weans itself off the Gazprom teat even though KSA enjoys UK arms imports to a lesser extent.

Petrol and diesel at the pump jumped up 10-15p/ litre again 2 weeks ago thanks to KSA throttling their output.

I think US interests won't align with the UK/ EU on the energy front longterm though understandably everyone's looking out for number one this winter

[SnakePlissken]

Oil is not that volatile.

I'm sorry what? Common knowledge that oil is a volatile market.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... %20market.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-08-17/
https://isen.northwestern.edu/what-make ... o-volatile
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/oil-is- ... tages.html
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43275
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... aders.html
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/a ... tegies.asp
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-beco ... v8BOwGjD9K