Impending Global Recession, buckle up yee-haw!

[aurelius]

So, glad to see people are saving more on the whole, but are these things broken out by demographics?

The pandemic saw the wealthy increase their share of wealth at an absurd rate. Unless I see a break down by demographic, I think this is one of those lying with statistics.

[mgil]

So, glad to see people are saving more on the whole, but are these things broken out by demographics?

The pandemic saw the wealthy increase their share of wealth at an absurd rate. Unless I see a break down by demographic, I think this is one of those lying with statistics.

I tend to agree. I think the people that were doing poorly with their finances pre-pandemic are still doing poorly with their finances and likely made poor decisions with the free money they were given.

[quikky]

It was not so much the pandemic as the response to the pandemic. Shutting down countless businesses tends to not help people build wealth or have normal pricing. It was, however, wonderful for the Amazons of the world. Nothing like the government deciding which businesses you're allowed to patronize.

[Hardartery]

So, glad to see people are saving more on the whole, but are these things broken out by demographics?

The pandemic saw the wealthy increase their share of wealth at an absurd rate. Unless I see a break down by demographic, I think this is one of those lying with statistics.

I tend to agree. I think the people that were doing poorly with their finances pre-pandemic are still doing poorly with their finances and likely made poor decisions with the free money they were given.

I bet some of it can be seen on Reddit, there's a thing they do on some of the investing ones called Loss orn or something to that effect. I think some of the "Savings" was people venturing into the stock market and engaging in risky behaviour with the "Free" money. Plus a little. Like any unrepentant gambler would.

[JonA]

I just knew that the $0.16 I saved last year on my 4th of July cookout was too good to last.

[aurelius]

I just knew that the $0.16 I saved last year on my 4th of July cookout was too good to last.

should have invested it in Bitcoin.

[GlasgowJock]

Think it made the Yank news last weekend that Ofgem updated its price cap for October by 80% for us poor Limeys. The UK is anticipating a further increase in the cap by 20-30% come January. Fortunately my wife and I fixed our energy earlier this year so we'll start getting f*cked for electricity and gas next spring once our deal expires.

My parents may freeze to death this winter but at least they'll have had their 6th covid jab by then to protect them from the pretendemic.

My wife's a local authority (public sector) worker and she's on strike next week due to an 'unacceptable' 5% raise in their wages in the face of 10.8% inflation etc.

Diesel's down by 20-30p/ litre so we're all supposed to be grateful and forget the fact it was £1.20/30 earlier in the year.

[SnakePlissken]

Think it made the Yank news last weekend that Ofgem updated its price cap for October by 80% for us poor Limeys. The UK is anticipating a further increase in the cap by 20-30% come January. Fortunately my wife and I fixed our energy earlier this year so we'll start getting f*cked for electricity and gas next spring once our deal expires.

My parents may freeze to death this winter but at least they'll have had their 6th covid jab by then to protect them from the pretendemic.

My wife's a local authority (public sector) worker and she's on strike next week due to an 'unacceptable' 5% raise in their wages in the face of 10.8% inflation etc.

Diesel's down by 20-30p/ litre so we're all supposed to be grateful and forget the fact it was £1.20/30 earlier in the year.

What I wouldn't give for a 5% annual raise lol.

That was the promotional raise my last job gave me 2 months before I left. Honestly though I feel bad for how bad energy costs over there. I have a friend from my last job that's from Northern England and told me his parents are burning through their retirement like nobody's business just keeping the lights on and their car running.

[5hout]

Can we get one political party that's actually out there to help people that need it and not faff about with some help (but always with a poor-shafting dose of "the global warming")? People don't have backup heat. There's no getting an extra load of coal/wood in for the cold days. We've got an infrastructure that's set up for a highly industrialized heating/cooling system (and have built houses that require AC/heat to be remotely livable) and politicians don't seem to give a fuck.

Residential oil is at an all time high in Michigan, propane is nearing it. The party of the people is spending all day, everyday, trying to shut down a key oil pipeline and stop a replacement from being built. Are there massive problems with the existing pipeline? fuck yes (although why Anchor Strikes are a thing, I do not know, but they are). At the same time the replacement pipeline faces constant opposition from the party that's supposed to be about helping those that need it.

I've got a raging sinus infection/headache so might be more bleak than normal, but shitdicking edgelords on a pogo stick, can we fuck off with EVs, wind/solar (in place where the coldest days have minimal sunlight and no wind) and sending all guns/money abroad and actually help some old people out?

[mouse]

What I wouldn't give for a 5% annual raise lol.

Holy shit preach.

The party of the people is spending all day, everyday, trying to shut down a key oil pipeline and stop a replacement from being built.

can we fuck off with EVs, wind/solar (in place where the coldest days have minimal sunlight and no wind) and sending all guns/money abroad and actually help some old people out?

No, because that party is really the party of constantly reminding you just how awful and poor you are, and how fucking awesome it is to be rich like them.

[5hout]

No, because that party is really the party of constantly reminding you just how awful and poor you are, and how fucking awesome it is to be rich like them.

It's like they took the worst parts of the late 90s Republicans and said "what if we improved this by making it our entire personality and we'll have a tiny computer to constantly [smugly] remind everyone of it?"

[hector]

What I wouldn't give for a 5% annual raise lol.

My health insurance is raising more than 5%.
Salary steady.

[GlasgowJock]

The Scottish Government capitulated to COSLA/ the unions yesterday and agreed a 10% raise for those earning up to £20k and an additional £1925 for those earning up to £40k, so wife got a 6.75% pay rise (effectively an additional £1/ hour). No idea how they're going to fund it (well I do tbh, probably raise council tax and lower the 41% tax threshold).

Now every other public sector worker will strike for nothing less than a 6% raise. English PS workers will be thinking 'wtf' and balloting for strike action too.

Time to give the magic money tree another good hard shake in the UK. We announce our new PM after the weekend (probably Truss) so curious as to her actions. She'll struggle to do a Thatcher as the benevolent Sturgeon is sprinkling wage increases for everyone 'beyond the wall'.

[aurelius]

What I wouldn't give for a 5% annual raise lol.

I'm curious what industry.

In the civil engineer industry, we have been competing nationally for engineers and seen a substantial increase in salaries over the last 2-3 years. For example, $50k was a starting salary from when I entered the industry in 2007 to 2019. Now starting salary is $65-$70k. And 8-10% raises for the first few years of an engineer's career are the norm.

PSA. Land surveryors. There are not enough licenses land surveyors in the country. They are commanding some pretty great salaries.

[SnakePlissken]

What I wouldn't give for a 5% annual raise lol.

I'm curious what industry.

In the civil engineer industry, we have been competing nationally for engineers and seen a substantial increase in salaries over the last 2-3 years. For example, $50k was a starting salary from when I entered the industry in 2007 to 2019. Now starting salary is $65-$70k. And 8-10% raises for the first few years of an engineer's career are the norm.

PSA. Land surveryors. There are not enough licenses land surveyors in the country. They are commanding some pretty great salaries.

I'm a mechanical engineer; last job was in manufacturing. Job now I work in an R&D department, but I've been working here for 8 months so I have no idea what the annual raise is going to look like, but I'm expecting 5% at the most.

My last job the annual raises were in the 2-3% range (or zero if you got any category "below average" in performance) and when I got my "promotion" which came with more official responsibilities it was 5%. I was already doing half of my old boss's job and got a year later promotion for it with a small pay bump.

People are replaceable and companies know it. It may be different in the other age brackets, but there are too many young engineers in the market. I get paid in the top 1/4 of MEs in my area so I consider myself pretty fortunate, but all my friends that are engineers know you have to jump companies if you ever want to get a raise or you have to be that guy that works 60 hour weeks on salary to get brownie points, but I value my relationships outside of work and my hobbies too much for that.

[aurelius]

People are replaceable and companies know it. It may be different in the other age brackets, but there are too many young engineers in the market. I get paid in the top 1/4 of MEs in my area so I consider myself pretty fortunate, but all my friends that are engineers know you have to jump companies if you ever want to get a raise or you have to be that guy that works 60 hour weeks on salary to get brownie points, but I value my relationships outside of work and my hobbies too much for that.

This is the exact opposite of my experience in the civil engineering field. We have had openings for engineers at all levels for over 2 years we simply can't fill with qualified candidates. The past 2 years have intentionally focused on retention of our engineering staff as our number one priority. Staff works an easy 40 hours and there is an expectation that is enough to get ahead. Very few have the drive to develop their technical capabilities outside of their immediate production work much less drive hard on the production side. As a company we are working on how to develop engineers and let them know that to become a technical lead or a project manager requires more than just doing your job. The messaging is tough as many of these engineers entered the work force during COVID and have these expectations of working from home in their PJ's and getting 10% raises per year. They in for a reality check when their career stalls.

Sure, we can hire new grads out of College but they know nothing*. It really takes to the 2-year mark before I get a self-sufficient productive engineer. And you are still competing nationally for them. I had an incompetent manager that was lazy AND technically deficient. I had to argue 6 months before I was allowed to fire them. Because there are ZERO 10+ year people out there. Yes, I had to take on a large portion of their workload but that was better than having infrastructure being designed that would fail. Jesus that kept me up at night. Thankfully I was able to go through most of their old projects and modify the designs in the field. I still worry about what I didn't catch.

There are a confluence of factors that are driving demand for civil engineers:
-very difficult to sub work out as regulations are local and often projects require local political know how to succeed
-increased regulation requiring more detailed engineering and plans (example: a drainage report that 10 years ago would have been 20 pages is now over 400)
-nationwide housing shortages in major metro areas
-failing infrastructure
-inadequate infrastructure due to climate change (increased flooding, water shortages, and on)

*Which is what I'm doing. I'm hiring seniors in college, having them work part-time in the fall and spring semesters. Full-time in the summer then bringing them on full-time. Let's us try them out and train them for cheap. Plus, we get to set expectations early. Hoping to bottom up drive a culture change with our 2-4 year tier that has unrealistic expectations of work and how to advance.

[SnakePlissken]

People are replaceable and companies know it. It may be different in the other age brackets, but there are too many young engineers in the market. I get paid in the top 1/4 of MEs in my area so I consider myself pretty fortunate, but all my friends that are engineers know you have to jump companies if you ever want to get a raise or you have to be that guy that works 60 hour weeks on salary to get brownie points, but I value my relationships outside of work and my hobbies too much for that.

This is the exact opposite of my experience in the civil engineering field. We have had openings for engineers at all levels for over 2 years we simply can't fill with qualified candidates. The past 2 years have intentionally focused on retention of our engineering staff as our number one priority. Staff works an easy 40 hours and there is an expectation that is enough to get ahead. Very few have the drive to develop their technical capabilities outside of their immediate production work much less drive hard on the production side. As a company we are working on how to develop engineers and let them know that to become a technical lead or a project manager requires more than just doing your job. The messaging is tough as many of these engineers entered the work force during COVID and have these expectations of working from home in their PJ's and getting 10% raises per year. They in for a reality check when their career stalls.

Sure, we can hire new grads out of College but they know nothing*. It really takes to the 2-year mark before I get a self-sufficient productive engineer. And you are still competing nationally for them. I had an incompetent manager that was lazy AND technically deficient. I had to argue 6 months before I was allowed to fire them. Because there are ZERO 10+ year people out there. Yes, I had to take on a large portion of their workload but that was better than having infrastructure being designed that would fail. Jesus that kept me up at night. Thankfully I was able to go through most of their old projects and modify the designs in the field. I still worry about what I didn't catch.

There are a confluence of factors that are driving demand for civil engineers:
-very difficult to sub work out as regulations are local and often projects require local political know how to succeed
-increased regulation requiring more detailed engineering and plans (example: a drainage report that 10 years ago would have been 20 pages is now over 400)
-nationwide housing shortages in major metro areas
-failing infrastructure
-inadequate infrastructure due to climate change (increased flooding, water shortages, and on)

*Which is what I'm doing. I'm hiring seniors in college, having them work part-time in the fall and spring semesters. Full-time in the summer then bringing them on full-time. Let's us try them out and train them for cheap. Plus, we get to set expectations early. Hoping to bottom up drive a culture change with our 2-4 year tier that has unrealistic expectations of work and how to advance.

I know a lot of what you're talking about. I've worked for a lot of companies with obtuse management that has the idea stuck in their head that "people should be lucky they have a job in times like this." My last job's last day was the week before Christmas last year; they hired a guy that had worked there before that hired on in February and quit 3 months later. They hired a 2nd guy that is the one that apparently doesn't do anything and then they hired a 3rd guy because of guy 2 who my friends say is pretty decent, but is also probably making good money since the dude is 33 and has experience under his belt. So basically in 8 months they've gone through 3 engineers and are currently paying for 2 to cover my old job. Never will understand that.

The other big problem is the black hole in engineering of people aged 35-50 are few and far between. I can count on 2 hands how many engineers in that age range I've worked with, but I've worked with dozens of people above and below that. One group is generally inexperienced and plagued with people that are useless and the other is considered "past their prime" and companies are spooked hiring someone with "only 10 good years of work left in them."

Last time I worked for a large company was Georgia-Pacific and it had all the retention issues you discuss, but with programs made by the HR department for retention; spoilers, it didn't work and the turnover rate for engineers was about 1 year. Since then every company I've gone to is smaller and smaller so retention isn't as big of an issue in the engineering department. Place I work at now is 35 people total including all the managers and few people that work in production so it's a bit more insulated. The tenure at my job now too is very long. The senior engineer I'm basically an apprentice under has been there for 12 years and she's one of the more "recent hires." I replaced a guy that retired and had worked there for 15 years.

[SnakePlissken]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/05/euro-sl ... plies.html

Speaking of high energy prices. Germany is going to have to source gas from somewhere other than Russia after a "turbine malfunction" on the Nordstream 1 pipeline.

One Euro is worth less than one US Dollar now. Dutch gas benchmark was running 282.5 Euros/MWh or about 9.5x higher than it was September 2021.

Things are going to get very bad if Europe has a cold winter.

[mouse]

I'm a mechanical engineer; last job was in manufacturing.

My last job the annual raises were in the 2-3% range

there are too many young engineers in the market.

you have to jump companies if you ever want to get a raise or you have to be that guy that works 60 hour weeks on salary to get brownie points, but I value my relationships outside of work and my hobbies too much for that.

*step brothers did we just become best friends meme*

That's all dead on my experience as well. Although in my exact situation I'm not an 'actual' engineer and am 'lucky' enough to be hourly vs salaried so I'm never working for free. My (our) major gripe is that a lot of us in our group have been here 10+ years and the new inexperienced fresh faces being brought in once the revolving door started spinning a couple years ago are being brought in at (or sometimes above) where we are at earnings wise and it's creating a lot of sourness.

[mbasic]

None of this so called recession-business has hit my local market/economy yet .... and I don't think it will.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯