How Long Does This Last?

[mbasic]

...
Zelensky surrenders, is killed, or flees the country

[omaniphil]

I picked 3 or more. I think the main force will be beaten in the next 1-2 days, but there will be an insurgency that will go on for a long time.

[mouse]

I picked 3 or more. I think the main force will be beaten in the next 1-2 days, but there will be an insurgency that will go on for a long time.

I actually did the same for the same reasons...

[5hout]

I think primary land gains finished by 3, but that it takes till day 7 for it to be in mop-up/insurgency mode. I'm still not sure if this involves seizing Kiev, but based on twitter reports I would say by end of day tomorrow Kiev invested/fallen if it is a goal.

[Hardartery]

Even if Ukraine falls, it is not going to be "Over with". This is the first step in something that gets bigger, and there is a good chance that it snowballs into another collapse of Russia before it is "Over".

[zappey1]

Even if Ukraine falls, it is not going to be "Over with". This is the first step in something that gets bigger, and there is a good chance that it snowballs into another collapse of Russia before it is "Over".

They are not going to pack up and go home. Pretty sure they will be eying their next target. Non NATO countries should be on notice. A line in the sand has to be drawn and backed up with troops.

I also think China is taking notes to see how this plays out for Russia.

[GlasgowJock]

+1 for a costly protracted insurgency once the main targets fall in the next day or two.

Initial reports suggest Ukrainian civpop don't fancy being under the yoke of Russia.

[aurelius]

Ukraine did what they were supposed to do. Allowed the Russians in. One does not withstand a tsunami. Instead, Ukraine dispersed its forces and is hiding in cities. This forces the Russians to do the same and fight the Ukrainians on their terms. That is not favorable to the Russians whose army is built for large scale encounters utilizing the combined arms of massive tank columns and artillery strikes. Now they will have to start fighting Ukranians at the platoon and squad level. Insurgencies are not fun ~ Noncredited US army sergeant

Which is why Putin is having a summit in Belarus with the Ukrainian President. He hopes to force a favorable peace on Ukraine before Russians start paying the real price for the invasion.

+1 Protracted insurgency as the likely outcome.

[quikky]

Which is why Putin is having a summit in Belarus with the Ukrainian President. He hopes to force a favorable peace on Ukraine before Russians start paying the real price for the invasion.

Meeting in Minsk is extremely unlikely, and certainly not with Zelensky in person. The suggestion has been made to meet in Warsaw. It is not clear whether the Russians have responded to that.

[hsilman]

...
Zelensky surrenders, is killed, or flees the country

So what do we win for you being completely wrong about your guess here? Unless "lol" means Lots of Love.

[mbasic]

...
Zelensky surrenders, is killed, or flees the country

So what do we win for you being completely wrong about your guess here? Unless "lol" means Lots of Love.

...yeah, latest theory I heard is Putin DOES want to retain the entire country in some kind of attempt at unification.
The Russians really haven't destroyed much infrastructure, which would no doubt cripple the UKR military to a degree (along with the civilian way of life).

Because #1 - he would have to rebuild all that eventually, if, say he has his way in the end and "wins".
...and #2 - he can't afford to just smash and quickly rebuild (like say American can and has in the past).
That would be doubly costly for Russia, which is no financial powerhouse right now.

Just a theory.

The more Capt.Obvious is that the longer this goes on, the more it looks like he wants to own/occupy/reunite the oldSSRs.