The Russia vs Ukraine show

[aurelius]

Russia seems desperate. Blowing the dam will slow, maybe even make impossible this year, a counter-offensive in SE Ukraine/Crimea. BUT it was also the primary water source for SE Ukraine and Crimea.

[mbasic]

Russia seems desperate. Blowing the dam will slow, maybe even make impossible this year, a counter-offensive in SE Ukraine/Crimea. BUT it was also the primary water source for SE Ukraine and Crimea.

My brother and I were talking about this ....

...am I wrong, or is this like the underseea pipeline thing that got blown up?

There are so many downsides for both parties, I can't see why russia would have done that, its almost as if Ukraine did it, and blamed it on the rooskies.

Or am I fucked up again?

[quikky]

Russia seems desperate. Blowing the dam will slow, maybe even make impossible this year, a counter-offensive in SE Ukraine/Crimea. BUT it was also the primary water source for SE Ukraine and Crimea.

My brother and I were talking about this ....

...am I wrong, or is this like the underseea pipeline thing that got blown up?

There are so many downsides for both parties, I can't see why russia would have done that, its almost as if Ukraine did it, and blamed it on the rooskies.

Or am I fucked up again?

It was a hydroelectric dam. I don't see a reason for Ukraine to do it, as it creates a massive ecological disaster, and ultimately hurts their own land and people. From a military standpoint, that area was never going to be a part of any big offensive as the geography makes it far too difficult as it is. It might have been some secondary/tertiary part of the upcoming counteroffensive, but nothing primary. Ukraine doing it just makes it even harder to strike at the Russian fortifications on the left side of Dnepr by Herson, and does not really cause enough damage to justify it.

I think it is relatively safe to say Russia did it, either intentionally, or due to a lack of proper care and maintenance while under their control. If they did it intentionally, it's just another dumb decision on a very long list. I am still baffled they keep launching rockets at places like Kiev, with a very poor success rate. It has not had the psychological effect they wanted, and it has nearly zero military effect. They're just wasting precious resources.

[mbasic]

Now I read that Russia was 'occupying' the dam at the time.....and that in the few weeks leading up to the 'explosion' , the water level oddly rose up to high/near critical levels. As if they almost fill it up sky ass high and THEN let it rip.

Also read the impounded levels have to be so high to let water into gravity canals to get down to the agricultural use areas in the russian occupied/disputed zones. So it makes no sense there.

Also read the damn/impoundment system sends bulk water to another nuke reactor, for emergency cooling (if needed)... that's pumped water and I guess its not that big of deal right now, but not ideal though.....

Its all very ..... WTF!

[5hout]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nyt-admits

Ihor Kozlovskyi, a Ukrainian historian and religious scholar, said that the symbols had meanings that were unique to Ukraine and should be interpreted by how Ukrainians viewed them, not by how they had been used elsewhere. "The symbol can live in any community or any history independently of how it is used in other parts of Earth," Mr. Kozlovskyi said.

For the NY Times to quote this as a defense, good lord. Have they ever applied or even suggested such a standard is applicable to any other story?

[dw]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nyt-admits

Ihor Kozlovskyi, a Ukrainian historian and religious scholar, said that the symbols had meanings that were unique to Ukraine and should be interpreted by how Ukrainians viewed them, not by how they had been used elsewhere. "The symbol can live in any community or any history independently of how it is used in other parts of Earth," Mr. Kozlovskyi said.

For the NY Times to quote this as a defense, good lord. Have they ever applied or even suggested such a standard is applicable to any other story?

I don't remember them extending this latitude toward people that argue that the Confederate flag can represent anything other than "white supremacy".

[BostonRugger]

My brother and I were talking about this ....

...am I wrong, or is this like the underseea pipeline thing that got blown up?

There are so many downsides for both parties, I can't see why russia would have done that, its almost as if Ukraine did it, and blamed it on the rooskies.

Or am I fucked up again?

It always seemed Ukraine had stronger incentive than Russia to blow Nordstream. This week WaPo has an anonymous CIA source confirming WH rec’d intelligence in advance about UKR plan to blow Nordstream. The dam blowing does seem more favorable to Russia but big downsides for them as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ne-russia/

Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

The European intelligence report was shared on the chat platform Discord, allegedly by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira. The Washington Post obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.

The intelligence report was based on information obtained from an individual in Ukraine. The source’s information could not immediately be corroborated, but the CIA shared the report with Germany and other European countries last June, according to multiple officials familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence operations and diplomatic discussions.

[mikeylikey]

A lot of zeLeNsKyY 4d ChEss assumptions I'm seeing about this dam.

Occam's razor this shit. The simplest explanation is Russia did it. the dam failed due to over stress and typical Russian under-maintenance:

Water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir had been rising for months and were at a 30-year high when the dam failed.

Are there any confirmed historical examples of a belligerent state conducting a major false-flag destructive operation inside its own territory?

[mbasic]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nyt-admits

Ihor Kozlovskyi, a Ukrainian historian and religious scholar, said that the symbols had meanings that were unique to Ukraine and should be interpreted by how Ukrainians viewed them, not by how they had been used elsewhere. "The symbol can live in any community or any history independently of how it is used in other parts of Earth," Mr. Kozlovskyi said.

For the NY Times to quote this as a defense, good lord. Have they ever applied or even suggested such a standard is applicable to any other story?

it was originally a Hindi thing meaning prosperity and good luck

@Manveer has these all over his bedroom.

I'm sure the Ukrainian soldiers view it in that light/as such /s

yep, probably neo-nazis, but they are the " gud 'uns " ...they are OUR nazis

[aurelius]

A lot of zeLeNsKyY 4d ChEss assumptions I'm seeing about this dam.

Occam's razor this shit. The simplest explanation is Russia did it. the dam failed due to over stress and typical Russian under-maintenance:

Water levels in the Kakhovka Reservoir had been rising for months and were at a 30-year high when the dam failed.

This dam was a massive steel and concrete structure that operated for decades. Dams are designed with emergency spillways to handle high water. That should not be a cause for failure. The dam would not dilapidate enough in a year the Russian's were occupying for it to breach.

We continually view Russia's actions through a Western lens. All the downsides to Russia are only downsides if Russia gives a shit about its people. It doesn't. The Kremlin does not care if Russians starve, freeze, or die. It has saddled Ukraine with a humanitarian crisis at the onset of Ukraine's counter offensive. Military resources are now being spent evacuating civilians and trying to restore power. Tactically, Russia hopes to blunt the Ukrainian offensive.

Broader view: Russia can't mount an effective offensive. It is unclear if they are going to be able to defend against the current Ukrainian counter-offensive. It is unclear if Russia can even sustain this war against a Western supported Ukraine. I think this is just Russia's version of burning it all down if they can't have it. Which they do have a recent history of doing similar actions like razing cities they couldn't hold.

Are there any confirmed historical examples of a belligerent state conducting a major false-flag destructive operation inside its own territory?

9/11

[mikeylikey]

This dam was a massive steel and concrete structure that operated for decades. Dams are designed with emergency spillways to handle high water. That should not be a cause for failure. The dam would not dilapidate enough in a year the Russian's were occupying for it to breach.

It was built (probably shoddily) by the soviets in the 50s and 'maintained' by same most of its life, not just the past year. It's not obvious to assume during the time it was under Ukrainian control, a lot of diligent preventative care and maintenance happened.

We continually view Russia's actions through a Western lens. All the downsides to Russia are only downsides if Russia gives a shit about its people. It doesn't. The Kremlin does not care if Russians starve, freeze, or die. It has saddled Ukraine with a humanitarian crisis at the onset of Ukraine's counter offensive. Military resources are now being spent evacuating civilians and trying to restore power. Tactically, Russia hopes to blunt the Ukrainian offensive.

Broader view: Russia can't mount an effective offensive. It is unclear if they are going to be able to defend against the current Ukrainian counter-offensive. It is unclear if Russia can even sustain this war against a Western supported Ukraine. I think this is just Russia's version of burning it all down if they can't have it. Which they do have a recent history of doing similar actions like razing cities they couldn't hold.

Yean maybe my use of striketext obscured my meaning but; I agree "Russia did it" is at least a close second probability.

9/11

You know, as I was typing that question, I realized someone would probably respond accordingly.

[SSJBartSimpson]

https://startingstrength.com/article/musings

[quikky]

https://startingstrength.com/article/musings

Typical Rippetoe hive mind shit posting.

They've gone full Neanderthal. "Me know nothing. Me see weight on barbell, me only know barbell weight. Me try to lift weight. Me eat more because weight heavy."

[mbasic]

https://startingstrength.com/article/musings

Typical Rippetoe hive mind shit posting.

They've gone full Neanderthal. "Me know nothing. Me see weight on barbell, me only know barbell weight. Me try to lift weight. Me eat more because weight heavy."

Cornball. Time to do some soul searching when barbells became your root ideology.

Its straight out of the Harry-Spotter-body-builder-themed-animated-parody-thing I posted a while back:

"There is no good or evil. There is only weight, and those who cannot lift it"

[GlasgowJock]

https://startingstrength.com/article/musings

Christ what utter gibberish. I need to pour a hot kettle over my face to appreciate how cold an ice bath is cos #contrast ?

Maybe the author should put himself to better use and volunteer as a meat shield to stop some Ukrainian having their head ventilated.

[Hiphopapotamus]

https://startingstrength.com/article/musings

Typical Rippetoe hive mind shit posting.

They've gone full Neanderthal. "Me know nothing. Me see weight on barbell, me only know barbell weight. Me try to lift weight. Me eat more because weight heavy."

Starting Solipsism

[aurelius]

Anyone have updates on the counter offensive? All I have read is that Ukraine is essentially feeling out the Russian lines and have not committed the bulk of their forces. Russia is doing much better coordinating and responding.

[quikky]

Anyone have updates on the counter offensive? All I have read is that Ukraine is essentially feeling out the Russian lines and have not committed the bulk of their forces. Russia is doing much better coordinating and responding.

That's about it. The idea is to see where things might crack and follow up with a big push.

It seems likely there will be several counter offensives. After the current one, likely some time in the late fall, there will be one with air support from the F16s coming to Ukraine.

[5hout]

"However, according to the current data updated by Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence (OSINT) defense analysis website, Ukraine has lost just five Leopard-2 MBTs."

As far as I recall they have received (not promised, but received) about 25. So if further fancy tanks show up, no issues. If further fancy tanks are slow, they've lost 25%+ of their tanks in the initial stages (similar %s for other vehicles on a destroyed vs delivered basis).

[quikky]

"However, according to the current data updated by Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence (OSINT) defense analysis website, Ukraine has lost just five Leopard-2 MBTs."

As far as I recall they have received (not promised, but received) about 25. So if further fancy tanks show up, no issues. If further fancy tanks are slow, they've lost 25%+ of their tanks in the initial stages (similar %s for other vehicles on a destroyed vs delivered basis).

The total number received is in the hundreds. Leopard 2S and Challengers have been provided in smaller quanitites. Same with the Abrams that are going there. A lot are Leopard 1s, T-72s, etc.

No one would start a counter offensive against Russia with 50 tanks.