The Russia vs Ukraine show

[quikky]

Russian missile strike in Poland, unofficially two killed. Source of strike is "Unconfirmed". This could get ugly fast.

I don't think anything will get ugly and the likely outcome will be a whole lot of "meh". It was either accidental, in which case the only response would be to get even more military aid to Ukraine, or it was intentional, yet done on a militarily worthless target and denied by Russia, which seems to make little sense.

The only reason Russia would intentionally strike NATO at all would be to draw a military response of some kind, and then attempt to negotiate directly with NATO and bypass Ukraine. This could give them a way out potentially, as they could say they don't want a big world conflict so as a responsible party they will negotiate and back out in some way. Essentially, lose the war but not to little Nazi Ukraine, but to the whole world that mighty Russia simply did not want to destroy.

[Hardartery]

Russian missile strike in Poland, unofficially two killed. Source of strike is "Unconfirmed". This could get ugly fast.

I don't think anything will get ugly and the likely outcome will be a whole lot of "meh". It was either accidental, in which case the only response would be to get even more military aid to Ukraine, or it was intentional, yet done on a militarily worthless target and denied by Russia, which seems to make little sense.

The only reason Russia would intentionally strike NATO at all would be to draw a military response of some kind, and then attempt to negotiate directly with NATO and bypass Ukraine. This could give them a way out potentially, as they could say they don't want a big world conflict so as a responsible party they will negotiate and back out in some way. Essentially, lose the war but not to little Nazi Ukraine, but to the whole world that mighty Russia simply did not want to destroy.

Poland says 2 missiles, not one. Could be accidental, could be ineptitude, could be intentional. Doesn't matter. NATO is meeting about it, not the UN ( @mbasic ), although the UN may be meeting as well. The question isn't really about military response, although it could get there quite quickly honestly. The question is what other shenanigans are going to go on? Are there more sanctions on the offing? Is that even a possible thing? Do they build up more troops in the bordering countries and rattle sabres? What goes on in countries allied with Russia? Do we see China pick a side to alleviate their economic woes? Does Iran have a revolution and drop out of the picture? Does Iran decide to distance themselves from Russia? Does NATO decide to help Georgia push Russia out of occupied territory in response? What happens to global trade and product availability? Does NATO just want an excuse to blow up Russian military targets? The missile salvo was a clear response to Ukraine's presentation of a peace plan at the G20 today, which is a conference that Russia is skipping.

[aurelius]

Thinking out loud:
--NATO doesn't want to do anything other than what it is doing. It is working and low risk.
--Russia doesn't want NATO involvement. They really don't want to be in this war with UKR anymore.
--Ukraine has wanted NATO involved from the start. We know there they stand.
--Poland may want blood. They have not been happy about the Red Mist to the North for some time.

Poland mobilizes and moves troops along the border of Belarus and into Wester UKR under the guise of missile defense. This would free up UKR troops to move from the Western to Eastern front.

[mbasic]

Biden says the missiles in question didn't originate in Russia? (or umm..."unlikely")

[omaniphil]

Looking likely that it was a 5V55K missile fired from a S-300. So an anti-aircraft missile that was misfired essentially. And now, this morning the AP is reporting that the US said it was likely a Ukrainian missile that missed its target during the Russian missile barrage yesterday. Doing some other reading, this is not entirely surprising. Apparently, Soviet designed missiles tend to travel on for quite some distance if they miss their intended target.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48824500
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2 ... 20accident.

Doesn't change the fact that this wouldn't have happened if the Russians hadn't launched the missile barrage against Ukraine.

[quikky]

Looking likely that it was a 5V55K missile fired from a S-300. So an anti-aircraft missile that was misfired essentially. And now, this morning the AP is reporting that the US said it was likely a Ukrainian missile that missed its target during the Russian missile barrage yesterday. Doing some other reading, this is not entirely surprising. Apparently, Soviet designed missiles tend to travel on for quite some distance if they miss their intended target.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48824500
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/2 ... 20accident.

Doesn't change the fact that this wouldn't have happened if the Russians hadn't launched the missile barrage against Ukraine.

Beat me to it. As I was originally suspecting, a whole lot of "meh".

[mikeylikey]

Doing some other reading, this is not entirely surprising. Apparently, Soviet designed missiles tend to travel on for quite some distance if they miss their intended target.

Bush league. I learned awhile back that Raytheon makes a anti-missile gatling gun for use in urban environments, which shoots self-destructing bullets in order to minimize collateral damage. At $40 a round one burst costs $30k or more.

[mbasic]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

[Hiphopapotamus]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

Russia hasn't even begun defending its airspace in earnest yet.

[quikky]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

Russia hasn't even begun defending its airspace in earnest yet.

In Mother Russia, you do not use anti-air missiles to defend airspace, you use anti-air missiles to liberate civilians from electricity and water.

----

Russia really has been using S-300s to hit civilian land targets.

[Hiphopapotamus]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

Russia hasn't even begun defending its airspace in earnest yet.

In Mother Russia, you do not use anti-air missiles to defend airspace, you use anti-air missiles to liberate civilians from electricity and water.

----

Russia really has been using S-300s to hit civilian land targets.

Yep. You see, Russia is winning this war EASILY, and they're totally not having to purchase artillery ammunition from North Korea because their logistics are completely forked. Using surface-to-air missiles against ground targets is simply the kind of efficient, out-of-the-box strategy that Great Powers use to win wars in 3 days 6 months some unspecified number of months, just like when the US used B-52s to drop Perry class frigates onto Baghdad during the Gulf War.

[mbasic]

don't knock out-of-the-box weapon re-purpose-azation until you've tried it



============

UKR reusing those anti-tank grenades on drones reminded me of something the other day....

I took Aeronautical Science in high school. Was taught by an ex-Vietnam vet that was a helicopter pilot....if you could imagine the stories.
I guess at one point, they had figured out to put hand grenades inside small glass jars, and drop them onto .....onto..... "targets" (probably innocent people who weren't VC.... like my mother-in-law's-immediate-family)?...from way up high?
The jar would keep the handle depressed even though they pulled the pin; the fuse would start when the jar shattered on the ground.

[mbasic]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

Russia hasn't even begun defending its airspace in earnest yet.

Given that Russia air defense network seems rather porous . . . . Do you think a strategic UKR strike to 'off' Putin in on the table?

I guess if a strike like that failed, we might finally see a nuke used on Kiev or something.

[Hiphopapotamus]

Ukraine hitting targets inside Russia now, or errr well .... at least they are more open about it happening.

Russia hasn't even begun defending its airspace in earnest yet.

Given that Russia air defense network seems rather porous . . . . Do you think a strategic UKR strike to 'off' Putin in on the table?

I guess if a strike like that failed, we might finally see a nuke used on Kiev or something.

Yeah, I think targeting Putin directly probably has a greater risk of nuclear escalation than of any battlefield benefit. I think that's also part of the actual nuclear doctrine, ie. we'll use them if there is a direct threat to the government.

[Bliss]

I am from Russia. From the very first day of this war my thoughts have been and have not drastically changed. Just grew with extra details from researching the inner political situation, historical context and the like...if anything, it consolidated my stance further.
It coinsided with distancing from a part of the pool of friends and family, colleagues and general contacts and all in all a rise of depression and a plethora of other negative emotions.

As such, I feel it might be interesting to be able to provide any insight, if demanded, "from the inside out" about whatever interests you and whatever i can find/translate etc...
World certainly help me to speak, even if online, with more like-minded people, or, actually, even with just someone.

[GlasgowJock]

I am from Russia. From the very first day of this war my thoughts have been and have not drastically changed. Just grew with extra details from researching the inner political situation, historical context and the like...if anything, it consolidated my stance further.

What were your initial thoughts?
What is your perception of the inner political situation?
What is your understanding of the historical context?

[omaniphil]

I am from Russia. From the very first day of this war my thoughts have been and have not drastically changed. Just grew with extra details from researching the inner political situation, historical context and the like...if anything, it consolidated my stance further.
It coinsided with distancing from a part of the pool of friends and family, colleagues and general contacts and all in all a rise of depression and a plethora of other negative emotions.

As such, I feel it might be interesting to be able to provide any insight, if demanded, "from the inside out" about whatever interests you and whatever i can find/translate etc...
World certainly help me to speak, even if online, with more like-minded people, or, actually, even with just someone.

I'm sorry - it must be very difficult. I live in Cleveland Ohio, where there are a large number of Ukrainian immigrants, most of whom are from Eastern Ukraine and are Russian speakers. One of my friends said that he is no longer able to speak with some of his family members who live in Russia, as the difference in viewpoints is too extreme. I can only imagine how difficult it would be to face that same hostility when you are living there.

Do you feel that there are many like minded people left in Russia, or at least could be persuaded to return to reason if the political circumstances change? In Germany during WWII, it is true that many supported the government, but many of them felt shame afterwards. Do you foresee something similar happening if a more liberal government emerged at some point?

[Bliss]

What were your initial thoughts?

Something along the lines of "wtf are they doing! this is compete insanity!".

What is your perception of the inner political situation?

Very very briefly:
The continuing move towards a more and more totalitarian regime that started in the early 2000's and accelerated especially now after the initial war "plan" failed.

What is your understanding of the historical context?

Depending on what direction you have in mind, there's lots that should be considered.
What i told my parents last spring: whatever reasons you name, they have to be "reinforced-concrete"-strong because they have to justify starting a war.

I can only imagine how difficult it would be to face that same hostility when you are living there.

Thank you for your words! To be fair, i have to say that i haven't personally met hostility as i understand it. Although there're certainly accounts online about tragic outcomes of certain arguments/fights, probably whilst drinking.
I also don't tend to talk about it with strangers much, so at worst it would come to heated debates, or a stop or near stop of communications.

Do you feel that there are many like minded people left in Russia, or at least could be persuaded to return to reason if the political circumstances change?

Many. But these voices are essentially made illegal so are grossly underrepresented in the public discussion - analysts say this is one of the aims of propaganda too - to atomize the population and make individuals think their (reasonable) stance is only an exception. I can't give any %, but it's a lot of people, especially the younger ones.

Do you foresee something similar happening if a more liberal government emerged at some point?

Absolutely, there's just no other way to move on, but it will be a lot of work (psychological, educational, diplomatic etc) - I believe the current government would be unable to accomplish this even if required, so in my view a pre-requisite to this happening would have to be a major overhaul of the entire government and actually qualified, reasonable (or at least just sane) people coming to power.

[mbasic]

Tanks a lot?

[aurelius]

What is the difference between a Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (a precision-guided 250-pound bomb that is strapped to a rocket with a range of 94 miles) and any other rocket that delivers an exploding munition?