The Russia vs Ukraine show

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Cellist
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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1061

Post by Cellist » Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:05 am

Philbert wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:07 pm
mbasic wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:45 am
omaniphil wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:13 pm This is like the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in action that I've ever seen.
Just FYI, turns out DK was never a thing ...
Source?
I have read that the phenomenon of those at the low performance end of a cognitive task overestimating their performance (call it DK phenomenon) is undisputedly a thing, but the causes of this are in some degree of dispute.
Take-home message:
- The Dunning-Kruger effect was originally described in 1999 as the observation that people who are terrible at a particular task think they are much better than they are, while people who are very good at it tend to underestimate their competence
- The Dunning-Kruger effect was never about “dumb people not knowing they are dumb” or about “ignorant people being very arrogant and confident in their lack of knowledge.”
- Because the effect can be seen in random, computer-generated data, it may not be a real flaw in our thinking and thus may not really exist
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/criti ... y-not-real

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mbasic
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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1062

Post by mbasic » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:56 am

Philbert wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:07 pm
mbasic wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:45 am
omaniphil wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:13 pm This is like the biggest example of the Dunning Kruger Effect in action that I've ever seen.
Just FYI, turns out DK was never a thing ...
Source?
I have read that the phenomenon of those at the low performance end of a cognitive task overestimating their performance (call it DK phenomenon) is undisputedly a thing, but the causes of this are in some degree of dispute.
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/criti ... y-not-real



https://openpsych.net/paper/63/

=================

My 1st exposure to the term DK was on the SS boards around 2014 .... and IIRC, used by a couple of the SSC's

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1063

Post by omaniphil » Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:46 am

Ok, DK maybe a processing artifact and may not exist. Doesn't change the fact that here in this case, Elon Musk is spouting off a bunch of bullshit Russian Propaganda and toying with super basic realism tropes that anybody who has even introductory knowledge or expertise in the field knows is cray cray.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1064

Post by quikky » Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:11 am

The Kerch bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down...

That is insane news. One of the biggest blows to Putin yet. And, technically, on his birthday, depending on time zone.

For those that do not know, the Kerch bridge was built by Russia after the annexation of Crimea, and was a huge source of pride for Putin as a symbol of physical reunification. It is also the main supply line to Crimea.

There is also another train blown up in the Donetsk region. It appears that in the absence of longer range munitions, Ukraine has decided to target far away logistics the old fashioned way.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1065

Post by aurelius » Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:02 am

I am starting to think the Russian conscription is about control and not about changing the tide of the war in Ukraine. Sending a bunch of untrained and unwilling soldiers to the front lines will likely hasten the Russian defeat. As these troops will consume precious supplies and surrender/panic/retreat at the first opportunity. Russia has to know that. Plus putting 300,000 Russian soldiers into UKR then nuking it probably won't win over hearts and minds in the motherland either. Drafting Russians then sending them home with radiation poison to die not a great PR move.

There are already reports Russia is conscripting far more than 300,000 and conscripts are mysteriously dying at training. Think about it. The Russians can select a specific demographic that will have the highest percentage of potential dissenters and malcontents to conscript. Once conscripted they can send them to UKR or Siberia to get them out of Moscow and other heavily populated areas. The people most likely to dissent and cause problems for the Russian government are fleeing Russia. This is just Stalin's Pogroms in the 21st century.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1066

Post by quikky » Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:39 pm

aurelius wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:02 am I am starting to think the Russian conscription is about control and not about changing the tide of the war in Ukraine. Sending a bunch of untrained and unwilling soldiers to the front lines will likely hasten the Russian defeat. As these troops will consume precious supplies and surrender/panic/retreat at the first opportunity. Russia has to know that. Plus putting 300,000 Russian soldiers into UKR then nuking it probably won't win over hearts and minds in the motherland either. Drafting Russians then sending them home with radiation poison to die not a great PR move.

There are already reports Russia is conscripting far more than 300,000 and conscripts are mysteriously dying at training. Think about it. The Russians can select a specific demographic that will have the highest percentage of potential dissenters and malcontents to conscript. Once conscripted they can send them to UKR or Siberia to get them out of Moscow and other heavily populated areas. The people most likely to dissent and cause problems for the Russian government are fleeing Russia. This is just Stalin's Pogroms in the 21st century.
I think it is a reasonable theory that I've heard others mention. The biggest piece of evidence to support it, in my opinion, is the fact that Russia has not closed its borders. Even with the mobilization in place, persons that self identify as male are still allowed to leave Russia. This is not how it's usually done. In Ukraine, for example, since basically the beginning of the war, you cannot leave the country if you are eligible to be drafted. So, this give credence to the idea that Putin wants those dissenting to leave.

The other part is that the areas most heavily drafted are mostly impoverished and non-ethnically Russian. For example, Dagestan (for those following MMA, this is Khabib's home) and Buryatia have sustained massive losses in this war, completely out of proportion with the wealthier and ethnic Russian areas. It could be that this is both, to reduce dissent, and also to do some ethnic cleansing.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1067

Post by Hiphopapotamus » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:08 pm

quikky wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:39 pm
aurelius wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:02 am I am starting to think the Russian conscription is about control and not about changing the tide of the war in Ukraine. Sending a bunch of untrained and unwilling soldiers to the front lines will likely hasten the Russian defeat. As these troops will consume precious supplies and surrender/panic/retreat at the first opportunity. Russia has to know that. Plus putting 300,000 Russian soldiers into UKR then nuking it probably won't win over hearts and minds in the motherland either. Drafting Russians then sending them home with radiation poison to die not a great PR move.

There are already reports Russia is conscripting far more than 300,000 and conscripts are mysteriously dying at training. Think about it. The Russians can select a specific demographic that will have the highest percentage of potential dissenters and malcontents to conscript. Once conscripted they can send them to UKR or Siberia to get them out of Moscow and other heavily populated areas. The people most likely to dissent and cause problems for the Russian government are fleeing Russia. This is just Stalin's Pogroms in the 21st century.
I think it is a reasonable theory that I've heard others mention. The biggest piece of evidence to support it, in my opinion, is the fact that Russia has not closed its borders. Even with the mobilization in place, persons that self identify as male are still allowed to leave Russia. This is not how it's usually done. In Ukraine, for example, since basically the beginning of the war, you cannot leave the country if you are eligible to be drafted. So, this give credence to the idea that Putin wants those dissenting to leave.

The other part is that the areas most heavily drafted are mostly impoverished and non-ethnically Russian. For example, Dagestan (for those following MMA, this is Khabib's home) and Buryatia have sustained massive losses in this war, completely out of proportion with the wealthier and ethnic Russian areas. It could be that this is both, to reduce dissent, and also to do some ethnic cleansing.
I think all of the above is certainly possible but I think it's equally possible that we're all still buying into the myth, even if it's subconsciously, that Putin is 3 moves ahead of us and is playing 4-dimensional chess. I think it may just be that is no one in the regime really knows what to do, and they are just trying anything to turn this shit show around. It reminds of the scene in All the President's Men where Deep Throat says something similar about the Nixon administration:

"Forget the myths the media's created about the White House. The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand."

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1068

Post by aurelius » Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:45 pm

Hiphopapotamus wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:08 pm"The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand."
I believe this to be true. I also believe the adage, "Never let a good crisis go to waste."

This wasn't plan A, B, C, D or Z. Once the Russians realize brutally oppressing their own population is a reality in the near future to maintain control; why not start it off with the 'undesirables' first? There is an ever-increasing possibility the outcome of this war sees Russia become a North Korea.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1069

Post by quikky » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:56 pm

aurelius wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:45 pm This wasn't plan A, B, C, D or Z.
Well, technically, it was, and still is, plan Z.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1070

Post by Hiphopapotamus » Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:25 am

aurelius wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:45 pm
Hiphopapotamus wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:08 pm"The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand."
I believe this to be true. I also believe the adage, "Never let a good crisis go to waste."

This wasn't plan A, B, C, D or Z. Once the Russians realize brutally oppressing their own population is a reality in the near future to maintain control; why not start it off with the 'undesirables' first? There is an ever-increasing possibility the outcome of this war sees Russia become a North Korea.
Oh, definitely. Sending non-ethnic Russians into the meatgrinder is a old tradition so I can totally see them doing that now.

Russian shares a border with NK so maybe they can merge. North Korussiastan?

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1071

Post by aurelius » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:51 pm

quikky wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:56 pmWell, technically, it was, and still is, plan Z.
Good point. The Russians recognized from the start this would be shit show and just went with plan Z.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1072

Post by mbasic » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:59 pm

quikky wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:39 pm

THING A = I think it is a reasonable theory that I've heard others mention. The biggest piece of evidence to support it, in my opinion, is the fact that Russia has not closed its borders. Even with the mobilization in place, persons that self identify as male are still allowed to leave Russia. This is not how it's usually done. In Ukraine, for example, since basically the beginning of the war, you cannot leave the country if you are eligible to be drafted. So, this give credence to the idea that Putin wants those dissenting to leave.

THING B = The other part is that the areas most heavily drafted are mostly impoverished and non-ethnically Russian. For example, Dagestan (for those following MMA, this is Khabib's home) and Buryatia have sustained massive losses in this war, completely out of proportion with the wealthier and ethnic Russian areas. It could be that this is both, to reduce dissent, and also to do some ethnic cleansing.
I think THING A is going to be a real negative down the road. Any citizens worth-a-shit are going the flee the country. Sure, you'll be stuck with a bunch of low skilled yes-men down the road. But if the objective is to turn Russian into a NK-like dystopia ..... this makes sense.

THING B .... what will probably happen here, is after the Special Military Operation is over, send ethic Russians, Moscowians, and/or "true patriots" into those geographic areas that now have a "man-vacuum".

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1073

Post by mbasic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:00 pm

Russian still has a functioning airforce I suppose (to be able to hit a bunch civilian targets in Kyiv, etc)

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1074

Post by Hiphopapotamus » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:14 pm

mbasic wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:00 pm Russian still has a functioning airforce I suppose (to be able to hit a bunch civilian targets in Kyiv, etc)
I think Russia has something like 1,200 fixed wing aircraft and have lost 40/50 or so? Numbers* haven't really been a problem, they just haven't been able to operate in defended airspace without getting immediately shot down so they've mostly been lobbing standoff munitions from Russian or Belarusian airspace.

I'm curious how much this recent tantrum has further depleted their stocks of cruise missiles, of which they had already burned a good amount.

*Number of aircraft, that is. Numbers of competent pilots may be another matter..

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1075

Post by quikky » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:15 pm

mbasic wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:00 pm Russian still has a functioning airforce I suppose (to be able to hit a bunch civilian targets in Kyiv, etc)
They never stopped having one. What they have stopped, for the most part, is sending jets into Ukrainian territory because too many have been shot down.

What they have used in the attacks today are strategic bombers (Tu series), and I do not believe they lost many of those at all during the war, as they usually launch missiles from Russian and/or Belarusian territory.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1076

Post by mbasic » Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:41 pm

I was kinda joking. But yeah, it must pain them to use precious cruise missles, fuel up attack bombers, and pray to god they don't get shot down(EDIT: shot down by URK), or crash because 'maintenance' EDIT: or friendly fire.

Then, to just use up those resources in a revenge-attack on civilian infrastructure. I'm sure that was a Putin directive.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1077

Post by quikky » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:18 pm

mbasic wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:41 pm I was kinda joking. But yeah, it must pain them to use precious cruise missles, fuel up attack bombers, and pray to god they don't get shot down(EDIT: shot down by URK), or crash because 'maintenance' EDIT: or friendly fire.

Then, to just use up those resources in a revenge-attack on civilian infrastructure. I'm sure that was a Putin directive.
From a military and financial standpoint, the attacks are completely idiotic. From what I have read, Russia has lost over 80 cruise missiles, and about 13 Iranian drones to conduct the attacks. The result is some areas have sustained infrastructure hits, most of which has already been repaired, about a dozen civilians dead (as of now), and several dozen injured.

These attacks only have one purpose: terror. Putin is hoping they cause sufficient fear that Ukraine comes back to the negotiating table, and allows Putin to annex/take a break. This is another miscalculation on his part, because all the attacks are doing is angering the Ukrainians even more, and causing the West to commit to even more military aid.

Putin and his regime are no different from any other terrorist organization at this point. They are deliberately killing/hurting civilians for political purposes. What's amazing is that after the Kerch bridge attack, Putin condemned it as an act of terrorism. What a fucking clown.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1078

Post by dw » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:24 pm

Pretty amazing that this is the guy Trump continually professed his admiration for.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1079

Post by quikky » Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:49 pm

dw wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:24 pm Pretty amazing that this is the guy Trump continually professed his admiration for.
Yep. Men like Trump want to be perceived as strong and powerful, and being feared gives them a hard-on.

Putin's only card is, and has always been, fear. Before the war, everyone was at least somewhat afraid of him. The moment his fear house of cards collapsed, the guy now looks like a rambling old man. Without fear, Putin cannot find his place in the world.

I am still wondering how long his pal Tucker will keep supporting him. Harder to have a hard-on for a strongman when the strong part goes away.

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Re: The Russia vs Ukraine show

#1080

Post by augeleven » Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:56 pm

quikky wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:49 pm Harder to have a hard-on for a strongman when the strong part goes away.
https://startingstrength.com/resources/forum/forum129/

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