The epic tales of Corn Pop’s young companion (POTUS46 complaint department)

[aurelius]

I have a hard time keeping up with what the "f your feelings" crowd is getting their undies in a bunch about on any given day. I thought they were painting Biden as a senile old man. Now he's Sheev Palpatine?

Hard to describe Biden as incompetent heading into midterms when Biden has largely implemented his legislative platform**. I think if we step away from culture wars and extremist rhetoric, Biden has proven surprisingly effective in this era of divided politics. Compare what Biden has accomplished with just a 50 Senate majority to what Trump was able to accomplish with a clear Senate majority in the first 2 years.

Heading into mid-terms Biden is supported by a resilient US economy:
-gas prices have come down (inflation adjusted gas price is ~$3.20 in 2021 dollars since 1978)
-inflation is leveling off* (the Fed appears to have acted fast enough and is not waivering)
-economic indicators are strong* (low unemployment).

I guess you could point out Afghanistan as a failure but IMO who the fuck cares. We never should have been there that long. Doing so would draw attention to his foreign policy where Biden has brokered Russia's invasion into the strengthening of NATO and US alliances with Western Europe. We are seeing a reemergence of a more cohesive liberal democratic world order since the 90's that appears to be gearing up to take on the autocratic order that has been forming since the early 00's. Biden has largely continued Trump's policies towards China including the passing of the semi-conductor bill. It would be difficult to describe Biden as weak on Russia or China. And only the most extreme idealogues (morons) argue against that. IMO, it is hard to argue that the US is not better positioned on the global stage than at the end of the Trump administration.

I guess the switch to Biden is an evil mastermind is the logical strategy? On a side note: I don't hear much about Trump playing 4-D chess anymore.

Biden as President reminds me a lot of LBJ. Career politician willing to compromise with inside politics know how that can actually get legislation passed.

*Presidential administrations have little to do with these things but that isn't the popular narrative
**I understand that people may disagree with that platform. Pointing out that Biden has been able to implement it.

[Skander]

Dark Brandon

I have a hard time keeping up with what the "f your feelings" crowd is getting their undies in a bunch about on any given day. I thought they were painting Biden as a senile old man. Now he's Sheev Palpatine?

To be fair, that speech was more intimidating than one delivered at 4 seasons landscaping

[Culican]

-gas prices have come down (inflation adjusted gas price is ~$3.20 in 2021 dollars since 1978)

I remember when I graduated from high school*, gas was $0.499/gal. I plugged that into the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- CPI Calculator and it came out as $3.47 in today's prices. I paid $3.69 yesterday and I know many states are less than that right now.

*Edit to add that this was ~4 months before the Arab oil embargo, which drove prices higher.

[aurelius]

To be fair, that speech was more intimidating than one delivered at 4 seasons landscaping

[mikeylikey]

Propositionally, I agreed with the lion's share of what he said.

Rhetorically it was a failure. Came across as writing off 40% of the country. It was the long version of HRC's disastrous "deplorables" line. You cannot as president of the united states give a speech in which you refer to about half the country as "they" - exclusively. No overtures for compromise, no suggestions of common ground, nothing. It was a bad speech, and who the fuck thought the red lights and Marines were a good backdrop for a speech ostensibly about lowering the temperature in the country?

Off the top of my head I can't think of another example of the right information being delivered so badly.

[brkriete]

No overtures for compromise, no suggestions of common ground, nothing.

FWIW I'm not sure what Biden could possibly say that would satisfy Team MAGA or get them to align with his agenda. Maybe the calculated risk at this point is that energizing the Democratic base so they don't splinter off and vote Green is going to win more votes than trying to get a couple Republicans to cross the aisle (and the Republicans who aren't all-in on Trump are probably going to vote for the strongest candidate who isn't him no matter what).

-gas prices have come down (inflation adjusted gas price is ~$3.20 in 2021 dollars since 1978)
I remember when I graduated from high school*, gas was $0.499/gal. I plugged that into the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- CPI Calculator and it came out as $3.47 in today's prices. I paid $3.69 yesterday and I know many states are less than that right now.

*Edit to add that this was ~4 months before the Arab oil embargo, which drove prices higher.

I think this is a pretty challenging argument because I (and a big chunk of the voting public) came of age paying $0.89 cents a gallon in the late 90s to early 2000s. Maybe on a long enough historical horizon gas prices are inline with inflation but it was so far below that for long enough that I think a lot of us have it fixed in our heads that gas "should" be a buck or two a gallon.

[mikeylikey]

FWIW I'm not sure what Biden could possibly say that would satisfy Team MAGA or get them to align with his agenda.

Nothing, but it wasn't supposed to be an agenda speech. It was supposed to be a "our democracy is falling apart because we are so divided" speech. Which, why bother if you're just going to fan the flames.

I like Biden. I think he is a good man and has been an okay president (that's high praise from me) so far. To the extent that it would be humanly possible to start to repair the damage Trump did to our political discourse, I though, and still think, Biden was the right guy for the job vs the other people who ran.

That speech was not it.

[Culican]

-gas prices have come down (inflation adjusted gas price is ~$3.20 in 2021 dollars since 1978)
I remember when I graduated from high school*, gas was $0.499/gal. I plugged that into the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- CPI Calculator and it came out as $3.47 in today's prices. I paid $3.69 yesterday and I know many states are less than that right now.

*Edit to add that this was ~4 months before the Arab oil embargo, which drove prices higher.

I think this is a pretty challenging argument because I (and a big chunk of the voting public) came of age paying $0.89 cents a gallon in the late 90s to early 2000s. Maybe on a long enough historical horizon gas prices are inline with inflation but it was so far below that for long enough that I think a lot of us have it fixed in our heads that gas "should" be a buck or two a gallon.

You are right. I remember in July 1989 a month before Iraq invaded Kuwait that gasoline was $0.999/gal. The trusty CPI calculator gives $2.27 as the inflation adjusted price today.

[aurelius]

You are right. I remember in July 1989 a month before Iraq invaded Kuwait that gasoline was $0.999/gal. The trusty CPI calculator gives $2.27 as the inflation adjusted price today.

This site has inflation adjusted gas prices ~$3.20 per gallon since 1978. I have not checked the math.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/g ... inflation/

[brkriete]

You are right. I remember in July 1989 a month before Iraq invaded Kuwait that gasoline was $0.999/gal. The trusty CPI calculator gives $2.27 as the inflation adjusted price today.

This site has inflation adjusted gas prices ~$3.20 per gallon since 1978. I have not checked the math.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/g ... inflation/

Either the site isn't saying what we think it is or the math is flat out wrong. It says the average gas price in 2020 was 2.242 which is 3.049 in 2021 dollars. That works out to 36% inflation 2020 > 2021. Even a sniff test says gas prices fluctuate more than inflation so seeing it "pegged" to +/-$3.15 doesn't make sense.

[aurelius]

Either the site isn't saying what we think it is or the math is flat out wrong. It says the average gas price in 2020 was 2.242 which is 3.049 in 2021 dollars. That works out to 36% inflation 2020 > 2021. Even a sniff test says gas prices fluctuate more than inflation so seeing it "pegged" to +/-$3.15 doesn't make sense.

You are ignoring the factors that drive pricing: supply and demand.

We had lower gas prices in 2020 because of COVID reduced demand. That was a unique historical event that impacted global demand for oil. 2020 is a statistical outlier.

We recently had a supply scare while demand was ramping up post-COVID that drove up gasoline prices. But it seems that has past as gasoline prices are returning to the ‘norm’.

An inflation only analysis makes an assumption ‘all things being equal’. Which is not always the case. But in a longer and relevant timescale the assumption can prove useful. Looking at over 40 years of gas prices shows longterm trends that will ‘factor out’ abrupt supply and demand changes.

Remember, all models are wrong. Some are useful.

[mikeylikey]

You are ignoring the factors that drive pricing: supply and demand.

Nonsense. It's Biden's fault. The sticker on the gas pump should have told you.

[Hiphopapotamus]

You are ignoring the factors that drive pricing: supply and demand.

Nonsense. It's Biden's fault. The sticker on the gas pump should have told you.

That's a risky troll if gas prices were to drop considerably..

[aurelius]

Nonsense. It's Biden's fault. The sticker on the gas pump should have told you.

Hard to argue against that amazing sticker. I love a good meme.

[brkriete]

Either the site isn't saying what we think it is or the math is flat out wrong. It says the average gas price in 2020 was 2.242 which is 3.049 in 2021 dollars. That works out to 36% inflation 2020 > 2021. Even a sniff test says gas prices fluctuate more than inflation so seeing it "pegged" to +/-$3.15 doesn't make sense.

You are ignoring the factors that drive pricing: supply and demand.

We had lower gas prices in 2020 because of COVID reduced demand. That was a unique historical event that impacted global demand for oil. 2020 is a statistical outlier.

We recently had a supply scare while demand was ramping up post-COVID that drove up gasoline prices. But it seems that has past as gasoline prices are returning to the ‘norm’.

An inflation only analysis makes an assumption ‘all things being equal’. Which is not always the case. But in a longer and relevant timescale the assumption can prove useful. Looking at over 40 years of gas prices shows longterm trends that will ‘factor out’ abrupt supply and demand changes.

Remember, all models are wrong. Some are useful.

I'm not "ignoring" anything. I'm pointing out that the site you shared is not an accurate reflection of the inflation adjusted cost for a gallon of gas. I offer no opinion about why that is.

[mikeylikey]

Hopefully everyone has noticed the upshot here; allowing for deviations due to short term factors, the inflation-adjusted price of gas fuel has been remarkably stable historically.

This is because "the inflation adjusted price of gas fuel" is really "the relative price of Fuel to Other Stuff." And it should be obvious why this would be fairly stable; the price of fuel is a huge if not the primary determinant of the price of just about everything else. Fuel is the biggest expense in raising crops. It's the biggest expense in refining metals. Plastic IS fuel. Everything gets shipped using Fuel. And although services, like haircuts and home repairs and concerts, don't necessarily consume a lot of fuel (but more than none), we tend to consume those things in relative parity to physical goods over time, thus moderating their relative prices as well.

The other reason of course is that in 1974 the USA went off the gold standard and in 1975 facing a huge decline in the dollar, Nixon made a deal with OPEC providing a shit ton of weapons and an open-ended commitment to support the Saudi regime if they would denominate the international oil market exclusively in USD. So we have a quasi-oil-standard currency, along with the integral nature of fuel to everything else in the economy.

[brkriete]

The other reason of course is that in 1974 the USA went off the gold standard and in 1975 facing a huge decline in the dollar, Nixon made a deal with OPEC providing a shit ton of weapons and an open-ended commitment to support the Saudi regime if they would denominate the international oil market exclusively in USD. So we have a quasi-oil-standard currency, along with the integral nature of fuel to everything else in the economy.

I didn't know all that. Interesting.

[aurelius]

I'm not "ignoring" anything. I'm pointing out that the site you shared is not an accurate reflection of the inflation adjusted cost for a gallon of gas. I offer no opinion about why that is.

I have already explained why picking a singular data point to argue against a long-term trend is wrong. As Mikey explains, gas prices should be stable overtime. And the long term trend convincingly supports that.

[brkriete]

I'm not "ignoring" anything. I'm pointing out that the site you shared is not an accurate reflection of the inflation adjusted cost for a gallon of gas. I offer no opinion about why that is.

I have already explained why picking a singular data point to argue against a long-term trend is wrong. As Mikey explains, gas prices should be stable overtime. And the long term trend convincingly supports that.

I read more carefully and that site is using the "CPI for gas" to normalize gas prices. It's essentially backing into a number that makes gas prices a constant. At least that's how I'm reading the methodology. So...not surprising that when you normalize the cost for gasoline to be constant it stays pretty constant.

I think this is pretty interesting and it for sure shows that there is a "trend line" to gas prices but also displays pretty clearly that the 1980s - 1990s were a period of abnormally low gas prices:

https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-cent ... h-history/

[mikeylikey]

I think this is pretty interesting and it for sure shows that there is a "trend line" to gas prices but also displays pretty clearly that the 1980s - 1990s were a period of abnormally low gas prices:

https://www.titlemax.com/discovery-cent ... h-history/

Nobody says it has been or will be constant. You don't find it remarkable that the price of maybe the most important commodity in the modern economy has varied no more than about +/- 25% from the average over perhaps the most change-wrought century in the history of the world?