Coronavirus

[mbasic]

Fascinating.

[aurelius]

The "700 people die of the flu every day (across the entire globe)" argument looks pretty naive now when it's 100 people dying every day in just Wuhan alone. When this breaks out (when, not if, unfortunately), it's going big. A virologist friend tells me that he expects a 1% planetary die-off, mostly over-60s people with other health conditions, as in Wuhan. A bad flu season multiplied by a factor of about 100.

Did we just solve Social Security and Medicare entitlement?



*It seems I underestimated this outbreak.

[alek]

On NPR this morning, a spokesperson from the CDC said that the 11 or 12 people known to have it in the US are doing just fine. I believe a 12th was identified after that statement was recorded.

[mbasic]

On NPR this morning, a spokesperson from the CDC said that the 11 or 12 people known to have it in the US are doing just fine. I believe a 12th was identified after that statement was recorded.

I'm not going off the Chinese stats here, but say the death rate is the 2% thing.
You'd need 100 people to come up with two deaths.

And the demographics aspect to all this seems interesting to me.

People travelling a great distance to and from China are probably living a higher quality of life, and therefore, are probably healthier than local Wuhan people (say, assuming they got it over there).

Whereas at ground zero, infections are hitting the entire cross section of the population, a large majority of the elderly and poor people I guess are going to be exposed.

Maybe it will have to "cook" and fester in the local population for a while (in the other countries) to yield a higher fatality rate.
Being that everyone is aware of it now, that will probably mitigate things for the better, sure.

[mbasic]

I think this says he is dead again now, for the time being ... not sure:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

[mbasic]

im gonna figure it out

https://osf.io/usztn/

[mbasic]

Like I said before: smokers.
Skip to about 3:00 mark in the video below.
If true, there would/should be a huge disparity between men and women in the fatalities I think. Because about 50% of men smoke in mainland China, and only about 1-2% of females.

Would also explain why the infection/fatality rate might not seem so high just outside China.



EDIT: Yeah, found some stuff early on (Jan) that men were about twice as likely to get infected...don't know about death ratios.

Also... spitting. It's a well documented fact just random spitting, snot rockets, loogie hucking, etc. over there is a thing. Even just across the border in Hong Kong or Taiwan the prevalence of that is much less. Cultural thing I guess That probably didn't help things before the 'panic measures' set in.

So let's review. We got eating bats. Open air meat markets/ exotic animals with deplorable sanitation.
Chinese New year. Government cover-ups. High population of smokers. Spitting. Way too many people in too small of a place. Third world country trying to act like a first world country. You're welcome

[alek]

On NPR this morning, a spokesperson from the CDC said that the 11 or 12 people known to have it in the US are doing just fine. I believe a 12th was identified after that statement was recorded.

I'm not going off the Chinese stats here, but say the death rate is the 2% thing.
You'd need 100 people to come up with two deaths.

And the demographics aspect to all this seems interesting to me.

People travelling a great distance to and from China are probably living a higher quality of life, and therefore, are probably healthier than local Wuhan people (say, assuming they got it over there).

Whereas at ground zero, infections are hitting the entire cross section of the population, a large majority of the elderly and poor people I guess are going to be exposed.

Maybe it will have to "cook" and fester in the local population for a while (in the other countries) to yield a higher fatality rate.
Being that everyone is aware of it now, that will probably mitigate things for the better, sure.

Right. I’m just repeating what I heard.

I would expect the fatality rate to be lower in the US or similarly industrialized nations due to the quality of healthcare.

Similar to what happened with ebola recently—the only one in the US that died of it sought medical attention once he was pretty much dead. However, immuno-compromised persons should be extra vigilant as they’re at greatest risk as they always are.

Also, about that doctor... I’d bet a lot of money they executed him in some fashion.

[mbasic]

If I'm right about the smoking thing....RIP Russia.

[Rasmusb]

It's really textbook Chinese government in the face of any problem: Ignore and cover up until it is not possible any more and then overreact as if it came as a surprise.

Also, concurrently divert attention to foreign sleights to the Chinese dignity. Danish flag drawings, American entry ban of Chinese citizens, made up incidents of discrimination of Chinese citizens abroad, etc...

Worst of all... almost 2 weeks without gym now. That's the real tragedy here!

[mbasic]

American entry ban of Chinese citizens

I thought this was funny ^.
Gonna lock down an entire city of 11 million (and now I hear there are two or three other "lockdown" cities as well).
But then at the same time say, to not let Chinese Nationals come through your airports is undue panic or whatever.

Worst of all... almost 2 weeks without gym now. That's the real tragedy here!

godspeed Rasmusb

[mbasic]

[mbasic]

[Rasmusb]

I thought this was funny ^.
Gonna lock down an entire city of 11 million (and now I hear there are two or three other "lockdown" cities as well).
But then at the same time say, to not let Chinese Nationals come through your airports is undue panic or whatever.

The hypocrisy is real. I've been living in China for 13 years now. And if there's one thing that really pisses me off its their pitiful self victimisation. They wanna be a super power but act like a fucking thin skinned teenager. Gtfo

Here they are, comparing the travel bans to the Holocaust... IN ISRAEL!
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5KzOP2MamWpGECMmrwE_UA

What pisses me off almost as much are brown nosing foreigners in China trying to score points sympathising with the poor Chinese, case in point:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/somethin ... nstalled=0

godspeed Rasmusb

Thank you... The atrophy is real, and I was JUST about to set some sweet sweet PRs, righ @Hanley?

[Rasmusb]

BTW, MANY cities are on lock down. Pretty much all of Hubei province (54mil people?), as well as several cities in Zhejiang province. In many cities only one person is permitted to leave the household at a time and only once every two days.

Here in my compound in Shanghai, they have only one gate open. No outsiders allowed in. Everyone is registered and having their temp taken when leaving and entering.

[Hanley]

I was JUST about to set some sweet sweet PRs, righ Hanley?

It's heartbreaking.


People are concerned about 1% global population loss.

I'm worried about your 5% loss in peak-strength.

If you actually get sick this dark humor is going to age really poorly; so don't get sick, for my sake

[mbasic]

Yeah, I'm not seeing any racism against Chinese, or Asian looking people .... with regards to the Pangolin Flu TM.

My wife is SE Asian.
We all went to a popular crab and lobster place last night in the suburbs of Phoenix, AZ...
( which is maligned as a sort of racist place from what I've been told )....
about 15% of the customers were East Asian of some sort, and about 5% black ...
....it was all fine and peaceful as we all happily ate our food. Its Fine.

--------------------------------------------------

Getting back to the lungs thing.
Another explanation, to throw on top of the my smoker hypothesis....
...is the air pollution.

Oddly though, the US and China have about the same lung cancer rates.
Could be a lot to explain that though.

But yeah.
Chinese men smoke, a lot.
Women are probably getting a lot of 2nd hand smoke for their husbands, coworkers, etc.
I'm just guessing they still have a lot of smoking indoors, and what not.
I've haven't heard of a ton of childern or infants dying right and left (they don't smoke, yet).
Air Pollution doesn't help things.

If weak or "inflamed" lungs or something is the gateway for the virus, spraying atomized bleach (chlorine) all around probably may make things worse for peoples lungs (sadly, the health workers on the front lines/running the machines).
I guess thos big ass truck mounted fogging machines were used previously to spray fine water mist-vapor up into the air to combat fine particulates in the smog (see: air pollution above)...and it sounds like now they are running diluted bleach through them from what I gather.

[mbasic]

I was JUST about to set some sweet sweet PRs, righ Hanley?

It's heartbreaking.


People are concerned about 1% global population loss.

I'm worried about your 5% loss in peak-strength.

If you actually get sick this dark humor is going to age really poorly; so don't get sick, for my sake

I surely hope we a NOT talking about a lost benchpress PR.
Please say it was a deadlift or squat PR.

[Hanley]

I surely hope we a NOT talking about a lost benchpress PR.
Please say it was a deadlift or squat PR.

all of them

it was all of them

*stares vacantly into middle distance*

[Rasmusb]

I once completed the Starting Strength Novice Linear Progression, I DTFP... I'm quite sure I am immune to petty viruses like this one. Go forth and joke about my negative gainz in peace.

I am close to catching a serious bout of cabin fever, though, not being able to go out, staying at home with my wife and 4 months old boy. I pretend to be working a lot, but my business has pretty much halted as everything is closed in China.

@mbasic I agree with the smoker theory. The vast majority of fatalities are older males of which probably 80% smoke (pulled from my ass, but I have yet to meet more than a handful of old dudes who dont smoke).