Global Warming Thread

[Culican]

I'm a nuclear engineer (by training at least, not career). I skimmed this thread and was really encouraged at the pro-nuclear opinions. It's always been incredibly clear to me that it's the only energy source that can hope to replace the bulk of fossil fuel usage. Sadly it looks like it's actually decreasing its share of total energy generated. I remembered it being around 20% when I was in school around 2005, but now I'm seeing 12%.

I don't know how we would survive without Palo Verde here (largest nuke in the US). When it's 115F out, we need all the power we can get.

I make a lot of jokes about it with people: "Why are your cats so big? Oh, those are some strays I found near Palo Verde*." or *I got a bunch of double yolked eggs, must be because the egg farm is out near Palo Verde." But I am all for nuclear power.

* I didn't find the cats out near Palo Verde but I like the story so I'm sticking to it. BTW, I still have my father's radium dial watch but I don't wear it. Held a Geiger counter up to it once and haven't worn it since.

[mbasic]

I'm a nuclear engineer (by training at least, not career). I skimmed this thread and was really encouraged at the pro-nuclear opinions. It's always been incredibly clear to me that it's the only energy source that can hope to replace the bulk of fossil fuel usage. Sadly it looks like it's actually decreasing its share of total energy generated. I remembered it being around 20% when I was in school around 2005, but now I'm seeing 12%.

I don't know how we would survive without Palo Verde here (largest nuke in the US). When it's 115F out, we need all the power we can get.

I make a lot of jokes about it with people: "Why are your cats so big? Oh, those are some strays I found near Palo Verde*." or *I got a bunch of double yolked eggs, must be because the egg farm is out near Palo Verde." But I am all for nuclear power.

* I didn't find the cats out near Palo Verde but I like the story so I'm sticking to it. BTW, I still have my father's radium dial watch but I don't wear it. Held a Geiger counter up to it once and haven't worn it since.

My father had bought a shit ton of disused construction materials from the PV plant after it was completed at auction .... we are still going thru that steel today. Its not irradiated (plant wasn't active yet ...I think) ...but every time I see that stuff I laugh.

Makes you wonder when you drive by those tall poles in the middle of nowhere with all the loud-speakers on top.
There's a big sign/map in that gas station out showing the designated escape routes .... which roads to use and what direction.
I'm fine with it

[jrrenegar]

I'm a nuclear engineer (by training at least, not career). I skimmed this thread and was really encouraged at the pro-nuclear opinions. It's always been incredibly clear to me that it's the only energy source that can hope to replace the bulk of fossil fuel usage. Sadly it looks like it's actually decreasing its share of total energy generated. I remembered it being around 20% when I was in school around 2005, but now I'm seeing 12%.

Any favorite reactor types? For fission reactors, I'm partial to Molten Salt reactors, but am a little worried about the maintenance issues. I'm really holding out hope for some new fusion reactors. I'm really hoping a polywell type reactor using a pB11 reaction works out, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Oh man, there are so many cool ideas out there. Some mix of them could surely give us a great solution. I always liked the idea of the modular lead-cooled reactors that could be easily set up in other countries, and have good passive cooling and proliferation safety. I guess it's pretty much impossible to get any fuel out (like for nefarious purposes) and they just replace the whole core after the design life of 20 years or so. There are a few good wikipedia articles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small,_se ... us_reactor

So many of humanity's problems seem to come down to energy, and I feel like fusion is really the ultimate solution, and fission could be a bridge until it's figured out. This idea classifies civilizations according to their energy capabilities:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

[omaniphil]

So many of humanity's problems seem to come down to energy, and I feel like fusion is really the ultimate solution, and fission could be a bridge until it's figured out. This idea classifies civilizations according to their energy capabilities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

I've never heard of the Kardashev scale. I just giggled when I saw that a civilization using a Dyson Sphere is only at a level 2 of the 3 level system.

[mbasic]

So many of humanity's problems seem to come down to energy, and I feel like fusion is really the ultimate solution, and fission could be a bridge until it's figured out. This idea classifies civilizations according to their energy capabilities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

I've never heard of the Kardashev scale. I just giggled when I saw that a civilization using a Dyson Sphere is only at a level 2 of the 3 level system.

I would say if a civilization had the technology to pull off a full Dyson Sphere, they would/should be at the point where they could generate/create/harness power from other means to where they wouldn't ever bother with a Dyson Sphere.

It's like a plot full of holes in a really bad sci-fi movie.

[omaniphil]

So many of humanity's problems seem to come down to energy, and I feel like fusion is really the ultimate solution, and fission could be a bridge until it's figured out. This idea classifies civilizations according to their energy capabilities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

I've never heard of the Kardashev scale. I just giggled when I saw that a civilization using a Dyson Sphere is only at a level 2 of the 3 level system.

I would say if a civilization had the technology to pull off a full Dyson Sphere, they would/should be at the point where they could generate/create/harness power from other means to where they wouldn't ever bother with a Dyson Sphere.

It's like a plot full of holes in a really bad sci-fi movie.

Doubtful. I don't think you ever get more efficient than using stellar fusion as a power source.

[mbasic]

So many of humanity's problems seem to come down to energy, and I feel like fusion is really the ultimate solution, and fission could be a bridge until it's figured out. This idea classifies civilizations according to their energy capabilities:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

I've never heard of the Kardashev scale. I just giggled when I saw that a civilization using a Dyson Sphere is only at a level 2 of the 3 level system.

I would say if a civilization had the technology to pull off a full Dyson Sphere, they would/should be at the point where they could generate/create/harness power from other means to where they wouldn't ever bother with a Dyson Sphere.

It's like a plot full of holes in a really bad sci-fi movie.

Doubtful. I don't think you ever get more efficient than using stellar fusion as a power source.

Doesn't matter about efficiency....it was about technology, and the amount of energy used.

The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy it is able to use

Type II
A civilization capable of harnessing the energy radiated by its own star—for example, the stage of successful construction of a Dyson sphere or Matrioshka brain —with energy consumption at ≈4×1033 erg/sec.[1] Lemarchand stated this as a civilization capable of using and channeling the entire radiation output of its star. The energy use would then be comparable to the luminosity of the Sun, about 4×1033 erg/sec (4×1026 watts).[2]

Even the Dyson guy thought an entire encapsulation of the sun/a star was retarded [paraphrasing].
You would need a complete sphere intact to do what it proposed above ...

[Cellist]

https://www.google.de/amp/s/www.bbc.com ... 257982.amp

[mbasic]

Quick poll of the forum members ....

Are any of you actively doing any long term planning to prepare for inevitable mess that will arise from the Warming of the Globe (aka the Changing Climates)?

a - I will just adapt in 'real time' as problems present themselves

b - Its too hard predict that far out; and make choices that would make a difference.

c - Just ignore the problem and pretend it doesn't exist.

[aurelius]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

Combo a and b. I'm not just hoarding guns because they are cool. But in general the US will be okay. We are isolated and have lots of land.

Regionally: Areas of the US will become uninhabitable at the current population levels due to lack of water. Internally in the US we have the room and resources to 'move' people around. This will be a more 'natural' progression as people leave drought areas (lack of water, fires, and so on) for literally greener grass. It is already happening.

Globally: Hard to say. Other areas of the globe will experience similar or worse water pressures that the US is having. But won't have the room or resources to move significant portion of their population. Add to the immense water pressures a global reduction in arable land. What happens when you have a few billion people under immense water and food pressure?



This isn't even getting into the more dire possibilities if the climate destabilizes.

[Renascent]

Long-term planning? Sort of.

I live too close to the Gulf to ignore certain local issues that appear to be exacerbated by global warming. In spite of my home state's unwavering propensity for denial and can-kicking, I think those of us who can make appropriate arrangements are doing so; those of us who can't are preparing for the forthcoming Waterworld-esque dystopia the best we can. Boats, guns, and gas stockpiling if you can't afford to raise your home (or leave altogether).

I finally bought an inverter generator a few weeks ago, but the delivery guy decided to cosplay He-Man and carry it from his truck, which he parked across the street. Unsurprisingly, he dropped it from about waist-high. Surprisingly, he still rolled the motherfucker up the driveway afterwards, and then made a run for his truck. So it's going back, and my fume-fueled dreams of stockpiling gas are on hold for a little longer. I'll get the hang of this doomsday prepper shit eventually.

Read a local news article this weekend about the uptick in roadway sinkhole reports over the past year. Something to do with loess under the asphalt causing more erosion from the dry spells and sudden, prolonged downpours. So-called "generational" floods are becoming more common.

We've already advised the offspring not to have offspring. This planet feels like an aborted experiment at times...

[mbasic]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

I have two kids already.
The daughter is 19 now ... I'm feeling she is well on her way to being a person that is "not having any kids".
(all three of her aunts on my side are this way. Not medical; but just no interest in having kids at all).
The boy is only 14....I have a feeling he'll do this same....but I don't DARE have this kinda apocalyptic-talk with any the of kids.
By the time the boy is 20 the shit show will be fully underway, and I won't have to.
The daughter is coming to this conclusion on her own it seems.

Regionally: Areas of the US will become uninhabitable at the current population levels due to lack of water. Internally in the US we have the room and resources to 'move' people around. This will be a more 'natural' progression as people leave drought areas (lack of water, fires, and so on) for literally greener grass. It is already happening.

Yeah, its like you are reading my mind.
The Phoenix area will turn into a totally shit show IMO. for a fact.
There's no way the current real estate market and influx of new people is sustainable...or will even last for 5-10 years.
Too many people, too much agricultural. The Colorado, Salt, Verde rivers will dry up.
Its just going to get too hot here. Power bills/costs/etc will skyrocket.
I think there will be a negative feed back loop once it becomes more obvious, the real estate market will just absolutely tank.
Money isn't everything, but goddamn did a lot of people come here for the wrong reasons.

I've started the baby steps to facilitate my departure before the Exodus.

RIP earth

[Culican]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

Yep, I figure I could buy the most gas guzzling SUV around and drive it 100mi/day and have less long term impact than someone with kids.

The Phoenix area will turn into a totally shit show IMO. for a fact.
There's no way the current real estate market and influx of new people is sustainable...or will even last for 5-10 years.
Too many people, too much agricultural. The Colorado, Salt, Verde rivers will dry up.
Its just going to get too hot here. Power bills/costs/etc will skyrocket.

"Will turn into..." "It's just going to get too hot here."

We may have some days at 120F later this week.

Along those lines I have noticed that the official temperature never usually exceeds 119F. I think that's just so we don't alarm the populace. A calibrated thermocouple placed at various locations around my house, in the shade, on those days says it is 120-122F. I will be running that experiment again later this week.

[mbasic]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

Yep, I figure I could buy the most gas guzzling SUV around and drive it 100mi/day and have less long term impact than someone with kids.

The Phoenix area will turn into a totally shit show IMO. for a fact.
There's no way the current real estate market and influx of new people is sustainable...or will even last for 5-10 years.
Too many people, too much agricultural. The Colorado, Salt, Verde rivers will dry up.
Its just going to get too hot here. Power bills/costs/etc will skyrocket.

"Will turn into..." "It's just going to get too hot here."

We may have some days at 120F later this week.

Along those lines I have noticed that the official temperature never usually exceeds 119F. I think that's just so we don't alarm the populace. A calibrated thermocouple placed at various locations around my house, in the shade, on those days says it is 120-122F. I will be running that experiment again later this week.

I remember the 122F record day.
I was around 18-19 y.o. (30 years ago?)
I worked outside that day on a pile scrape metal sorting out the useful bits.

[Culican]

I remember the 122F record day.
I was around 18-19 y.o. (30 years ago?)
I worked outside that day on a pile scrape metal sorting out the useful bits.

Wouldn't surprise me if it was higher than that. Wasn't that the day they closed Sky Harbor because none of the plane were certified by the FAA to take off in those temperatures? I lived in California at the time but I remember it on the news.

[Hiphopapotamus]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

Apparently, you're not alone:

"Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.

Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing toward more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else. Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/worl ... nking.html

[mbasic]

@mbasic I'm doing the best thing one can to fight global warming: No kids.

Apparently, you're not alone:

"Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.

Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing toward more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else. Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/worl ... nking.html

Yeah, in China, I don't think we are seeing the negative effects of the fruits of the one-child-policy
(and the weird-3rd-world shit wrt having boy-babies"princes" vs. girl-babies)
so much as....
...I think now the majority problem is just parental expense, troubles, commitment, etc at having a kids in a kinda fucked up country.
Jaded? is that the word?

When population growth reverses itself, that will bring a whole new wave of troubles with jobs, the economy (was most predicated on growth), etc.

=====================

When I was like 10, and watched Buck Rogers and Star Trek re-runs on the local TV channel, I would wonder what all those rando people did who wandered around on the Enterprise, and/or back home at (2254 A.D.) Earth?





Like if robots did all the work, and food and w/ housewares could be conjured up out of thin air .... what did people do for a job and/or money exactly? I remember being curious about this and asking my parents.

I don't think its going end quite like how Gene Roddenberry imagined.

[Renascent]

Like if robots did all the work, and food and w/ housewares could be conjured up out of thin air .... what did people do for a job and/or money exactly? I remember being curious about this and asking my parents.

I don't think its going end quite like how Gene Roddenberry imagined.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/WALL-E

[mbasic]

Like if robots did all the work, and food and w/ housewares could be conjured up out of thin air .... what did people do for a job and/or money exactly? I remember being curious about this and asking my parents.

I don't think its going end quite like how Gene Roddenberry imagined.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/WALL-E

That's funny. For the life of me I could not think^ of this movie's name the other day talking with my wife about how the covid, and/or the lockdowns, had no positive effect on the environment whatsoever (despite what the MSM was saying).

"remember, the movie with the cute garbage picking robot on tank treads while the morbidly humans were floating around in their hover crafts sipping their 1024 oz. beverages???? .... that's pretty much what the line at chik-fil-a is ... 35 cars on idling pumping CO2 in the atmosphere because people can't cook at home"

[hsilman]

Like if robots did all the work, and food and w/ housewares could be conjured up out of thin air .... what did people do for a job and/or money exactly? I remember being curious about this and asking my parents.

I don't think its going end quite like how Gene Roddenberry imagined.

Broadly self-actualized human beings who don't HAVE to do anything, so generally do things that they want. I believe there is a shockingly small percentage of people who will Jeff it up, given the chance. Especially in a society who seems to be almost entirely focused on making you sure you understand you don't have to do something, but you could do anything.

Also, Ferengis run all the bars and they take money for shit still. Also cfr fetishization of "non-replicated" shit like scotch, because human's are stupid and think they can taste the difference between things that are literally the same.

Also also, the economic model in Star Trek never seems consistent.