2024 POTUS ELECTON

[JonA]

I think the Supreme Court splits the decision into parts.

• 9-0 that the insurrection clause _does_ apply to the President
• 7-2 Due process violation for violating constitutional right to run for President without conviction under 18 U.S. Code § 2383

I think the majority will also draw a line on whether or not the insurrection clause applies to seditionists.

[mikeylikey]

The right is going to have a field day with this:

https://www.justice.gov/storage/report- ... y-2024.pdf

[5hout]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/eight-words- ... 41860.html

Arrrre you not reassured? (In a gladiator voice)

[mikeylikey]

Literally the Uncle Leo defense:

[SSJBartSimpson]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

[aurelius]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

[SSJBartSimpson]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

I am very confident that Biden will rather easily. I just placed money on it.

[hector]

I am very confident that Biden will rather easily. I just placed money on it.

Why are you highly confident?
(Not disagreeing with you. Just interested in your reasoning, especially since you out money on it.)

And what odds did you get?

[SSJBartSimpson]

I am very confident that Biden will rather easily. I just placed money on it.

Why are you highly confident?
(Not disagreeing with you. Just interested in your reasoning, especially since you out money on it.)

And what odds did you get?

Didn't do through a betting website, did through group on my Discord.
-Right now real life election results are totally incongruent with the polling we have.That's the main thing: Biden is over-performing in the primaries, Trump is under-performing,and democrats are doing well in special elections.
-The trends in the states Biden needs to win are just too strong (reinforced by 2022). The suburbs in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are consistently going more and more democratic and there is no real indication that republicans are able to make up ground in the rest of these states to counteract it.
-Trump is under-performing his polling pretty consistently. I think after polls underestimated him in 16 and 20 pollsters have over-corrected.

[DanCR]

I am very confident that Biden will rather easily. I just placed money on it.

Why are you highly confident?
(Not disagreeing with you. Just interested in your reasoning, especially since you out money on it.)

And what odds did you get?

Didn't do through a betting website, did through group on my Discord.
-Right now real life election results are totally incongruent with the polling we have.That's the main thing: Biden is over-performing in the primaries, Trump is under-performing,and democrats are doing well in special elections.
-The trends in the states Biden needs to win are just too strong (reinforced by 2022). The suburbs in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are consistently going more and more democratic and there is no real indication that republicans are able to make up ground in the rest of these states to counteract it.
-Trump is under-performing his polling pretty consistently. I think after polls underestimated him in 16 and 20 pollsters have over-corrected.

Yup. Media is grossly overselling his success in the primaries. He’s actually not kicking Haley’s ass nearly to the degree advertised, and a lot of her voters say they won’t vote for him in the general.

[ChasingCurls69]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

Democrats should worry because the democrat party is fucking stupid and has put up dogshit unpopular candidates for 3 elections in a row, and then blamed or emotionally blackmailed progressives.

[SSJBartSimpson]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

Democrats should worry because the democrat party is fucking stupid and has put up dogshit unpopular candidates for 3 elections in a row, and then blamed or emotionally blackmailed progressives.

Democrats have done well in every election cycle since 2017.

[5hout]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

Democrats should worry because the democrat party is fucking stupid and has put up dogshit unpopular candidates for 3 elections in a row, and then blamed or emotionally blackmailed progressives.

Democrats have done well in every election cycle since 2017.

I don't have any settled thought on this, but:

D's have done well. They've done well riding an exceptional 3 factor wave of "biggest election in history", "Trump uniquely evil" and "better competency at ballot harvesting/mail-in voting" which has combined to both draw less motivated voters to the polls (social media progressives, among others) and massively demotivated R voters (especially Reagan Rs, people drawn to the 00s "compassionate conservatism", soccer moms and the like. Essentially people that will simply not vote for Pres. Trump under any circumstances, regardless of how many times they've voted R in the last 30+ years).

But, I think only 1 of these 3 factors is under their control. They can determine how much money to spend on ballot harvesting/msg'ing around mail-in voting and other non-traditional get-out-the-vote methods. However, R's are catching up here (i.e. state level parties have decided (strangely) they'd rather win elections than masturbate about the evils of perfectly legal ballot harvesting programs) and I'm not sure it's going to be the edge it was the last few years. Also, making it easier for old people to vote could very well be a classic D self-own as it may very well drive R turnout when the nice young lady with the Young Republican button, a high ponytail and a nice blouse/skirt combo comes by to collect the ballots from the olds.

The Trump Uniquely Evil factor will certainly be in play, and I doubt he'll be able to shut the fuck up on the debate stage, but it's still external to D control. Maybe someone injects him with a 5G stop-god-damn-talking-and-let-Biden-Sink-Himself nanobot, or not, but they have no control here.

Finally, I'm seeing extremely strong "biggest election in history" burnout and I think this is going to be the dipositive factor (baring something like a candidate croaking). We had T v C, then the Covid Election, with added hype from abortion and BLM. At this point I think a lot of the normally non-voting people that only went because of the hype have just checked the fuck out. Maybe the election season will draw them back in, but 90% of the fbook hysteria has dissipated and only the most crazy are still beeping and booping along. Gaza/Ukraine isn't going to work for this. Both will have been going on too long by the fall. Also, Gaza cuts against Pres. Biden and I expect Ukraine to be even more of depressing shitshow by the fall.

Chalk goes to the incumbent, massive advantages in any year and double so when the opposing campaign is guaranteed to be a disaster roadshow. But, it's going to be close and whatever the October Surprise is could sway it.

That said, if Rs ran a standard issue Republican I think they almost run the table and tie Nixon/Reagen for 49 states, so maybe their best bet is praying for heart disease.

[aurelius]

That said, if Rs ran a standard issue Republican I think they almost run the table and tie Nixon/Reagen for 49 states, so maybe their best bet is praying for heart disease.

I mostly agree with this. But that candidate wouldn't survive Republican primaries in 2024. If Democrats ran a centrist other than Biden against Trump I don't think it would be close. But Biden would have to allow this.

Keep in mind we have the choice between two elderly individuals who both show signs of mental decline. Both parties failed to invest in leadership in the non-baby boomer generations. This is not unique to the 'party leader' position. Look at the Republicans in the House. How long does this House Speaker last? Who replaces him? Democrats seemed to move past Pelosi and quickly select a House Minority leader but that can evaporate quickly if they win back the House and the House Speakership is on the line. Who replaces the Turtle in the Senate for the Republicans? Cruz??? And there is no one being groomed behind Schumer. Neither party has done well developing leadership within their ranks. One of the reasons you see a small, radical contingent control the Republican party. Democrats are running the same risk of radicals (true socialists, anarchists, and such) hijacking the party if they are not careful.

[5hout]

That said, if Rs ran a standard issue Republican I think they almost run the table and tie Nixon/Reagen for 49 states, so maybe their best bet is praying for heart disease.

I mostly agree with this. But that candidate wouldn't survive Republican primaries in 2024. If Democrats ran a centrist other than Biden against Trump I don't think it would be close. But Biden would have to allow this.

Keep in mind we have the choice between two elderly individuals who both show signs of mental decline. Both parties failed to invest in leadership in the non-baby boomer generations. This is not unique to the 'party leader' position. Look at the Republicans in the House. How long does this House Speaker last? Who replaces him? Democrats seemed to move past Pelosi and quickly select a House Minority leader but that can evaporate quickly if they win back the House and the House Speakership is on the line. Who replaces the Turtle in the Senate for the Republicans? Cruz??? And there is no one being groomed behind Schumer. Neither party has done well developing leadership within their ranks. One of the reasons you see a small, radical contingent control the Republican party. Democrats are running the same risk of radicals (true socialists, anarchists, and such) hijacking the party if they are not careful.

Yes, strong agree with all your additional points.

[BostonRugger]

I think Trump benefits from not being on Twitter and only posting on the very fake Truth Social

Also, got a ruling on the CO ballot access case.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna132291

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday handed a sweeping win to former President Donald Trump by ruling that states cannot kick him off the ballot over his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — bringing a swift end to a case with huge implications for the 2024 election.

In an unsigned ruling with no dissents, the court reversed the Colorado Supreme Court, which had determined that Trump could not serve again as president under Section 3 of the Constitution's 14th Amendment.

The provision prohibits those who previously held government positions but later “engaged in insurrection” from running for various offices.

The court said the Colorado Supreme Court had wrongly assumed that states can determine whether a presidential candidate or other candidate for federal office is ineligible.

The ruling makes it clear that Congress, not states, has to set rules on how the 14th Amendment provision can be enforced against federal office-seekers. As such, the decision applies to all states, not just Colorado. States retain the power to bar people running for state office from appearing on the ballot under Section 3.

[SSJBartSimpson]

I like how Biden is behind in all the polls but democrats are acting like he's going to easily win.

Trump has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election. In 2016 Trump had electoral magic on his side caused by low Democrat turnout in key districts in a handful of States. It is harder to win an election when one does not get the most votes.

Democrats should worry because progressives are fucking stupid and will do something like protest vote against Biden because the Israeli/Palestine conflict.

I personally don't know anyone that is confident in the outcome of this election cycle.

Democrats should worry because the democrat party is fucking stupid and has put up dogshit unpopular candidates for 3 elections in a row, and then blamed or emotionally blackmailed progressives.

Democrats have done well in every election cycle since 2017.

I don't have any settled thought on this, but:

D's have done well. They've done well riding an exceptional 3 factor wave of "biggest election in history", "Trump uniquely evil" and "better competency at ballot harvesting/mail-in voting" which has combined to both draw less motivated voters to the polls (social media progressives, among others) and massively demotivated R voters (especially Reagan Rs, people drawn to the 00s "compassionate conservatism", soccer moms and the like. Essentially people that will simply not vote for Pres. Trump under any circumstances, regardless of how many times they've voted R in the last 30+ years).

But, I think only 1 of these 3 factors is under their control. They can determine how much money to spend on ballot harvesting/msg'ing around mail-in voting and other non-traditional get-out-the-vote methods. However, R's are catching up here (i.e. state level parties have decided (strangely) they'd rather win elections than masturbate about the evils of perfectly legal ballot harvesting programs) and I'm not sure it's going to be the edge it was the last few years. Also, making it easier for old people to vote could very well be a classic D self-own as it may very well drive R turnout when the nice young lady with the Young Republican button, a high ponytail and a nice blouse/skirt combo comes by to collect the ballots from the olds.

The Trump Uniquely Evil factor will certainly be in play, and I doubt he'll be able to shut the fuck up on the debate stage, but it's still external to D control. Maybe someone injects him with a 5G stop-god-damn-talking-and-let-Biden-Sink-Himself nanobot, or not, but they have no control here.

Finally, I'm seeing extremely strong "biggest election in history" burnout and I think this is going to be the dipositive factor (baring something like a candidate croaking). We had T v C, then the Covid Election, with added hype from abortion and BLM. At this point I think a lot of the normally non-voting people that only went because of the hype have just checked the fuck out. Maybe the election season will draw them back in, but 90% of the fbook hysteria has dissipated and only the most crazy are still beeping and booping along. Gaza/Ukraine isn't going to work for this. Both will have been going on too long by the fall. Also, Gaza cuts against Pres. Biden and I expect Ukraine to be even more of depressing shitshow by the fall.

Chalk goes to the incumbent, massive advantages in any year and double so when the opposing campaign is guaranteed to be a disaster roadshow. But, it's going to be close and whatever the October Surprise is could sway it.

That said, if Rs ran a standard issue Republican I think they almost run the table and tie Nixon/Reagen for 49 states, so maybe their best bet is praying for heart disease.

You're missing the part where dems don't run lunatic candidates in competitive races.

[aurelius]

You're missing the part where dems don't run lunatic candidates in competitive races.

Hershel Walker was a great running back AND FBI agent.

[mikeylikey]

These are the polls from last time:



Biden ended up winning by about 4.5 percentage points in the national popular vote, significantly below his consistent margin in the polls up to that time.

This happened in 2016 with Clinton as well; she won the popular vote but not by as much as she should have according to the polls.

What I am seeing several of you apparently positing above is that pollsters have overcorrected and are now spotting Trump several extra points, so that his current lead can be disregarded as an illusion. I'm not buying it.

[EricK]

I think more concerning, since the popular vote doesn't really matter, is that Trump is leading in the swing states. I think we might be fucked.