Global Warming Thread

[GlasgowJock]

This thread has been a fascinating read, particularly tersh's earlier input.

I was reading about Milankovitch cycles earlier in the week and that the Earth is due to return to its 22.1 degree 'tilt' over the next ten thousand years or so resulting in an anticipated period of 'cooling' once again due to the subsequent #science.

Not really of much solace if the more severe modeling predicted by the IPCC hypothesises a ~4 degree increase in aggregate global surface temperatures by 2100 and the potential subsequent changes in climate and resulting mass population shifts/ extinctions. The recent mass flooding in Pakistan is a single data point of note although I'm not attempting to conflate short term weather with long term climate.

I think it's mental why we haven't embraced nuclear more so tbh too, particularly in the UK. I think we've shut down two plants this year, increasing our dependence on LNG.

[aurelius]

Not really of much solace if the more severe modeling predicted by the IPCC hypothesises a ~4 degree increase in aggregate global surface temperatures by 2100 and the potential subsequent changes in climate and resulting mass population shifts/ extinctions. The recent mass flooding in Pakistan is a single data point of note although I'm not attempting to conflate short term weather with long term climate.

There are numerous data points that all match the predicted outcomes of the global temperature increases (energy increase). In the US predicted outcomes are the increased probability of extreme weather events (cold and hot) and the drought and fires of the entire Western US.

I think it's mental why we haven't embraced nuclear more so tbh too

This ^. The US allowed fossil fuel interests and unfounded public fears to push us away from this technology.

On a 'happy' note: necessity will drive California to build nuclear power plants and desalinization plants (which require a lot of power). We will enter the 20th century sooner or later!

[Philbert]

Not really of much solace if the more severe modeling predicted by the IPCC hypothesises a ~4 degree increase in aggregate global surface temperatures by 2100 and the potential subsequent changes in climate and resulting mass population shifts/ extinctions. The recent mass flooding in Pakistan is a single data point of note although I'm not attempting to conflate short term weather with long term climate.

There are numerous data points that all match the predicted outcomes of the global temperature increases (energy increase). In the US predicted outcomes are the increased probability of extreme weather events (cold and hot) and the drought and fires of the entire Western US.

I think it's mental why we haven't embraced nuclear more so tbh too

This ^. The US allowed fossil fuel interests and unfounded public fears to push us away from this technology.

On a 'happy' note: necessity will drive California to build nuclear power plants and desalinization plants (which require a lot of power). We will enter the 20th century sooner or later!

I don't know. to paraphrase some economist whose name I do not remember, I fear the California body politic can remain irrational longer than the energy grid can remain solvent.

[EggMcMuffin]

Boy, it's hotter than Satan's asshole out here today. I'm sweating just posting this. Hasn't rained in three years, it's fine.

[mbasic]

I'm not so sure the global warming is from (100% so) CO2 emissions any more.

However, it seems were still in a warming period, which is more disconcerting.

Either way, it seems we are morons if we do not prepared for this (food production, water, flood "works", etc).

My family is involved with a lot of civil engineering type stuff, its going to be interesting to watch how "stuff" holds up, or not.

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seems like, were collectively retarded either way .... CO2 or not, still gonna run out of oil.
Water is still precious.
Food not easy grow/world population increasing (in all the wrong places).

[omaniphil]

I think there's a decent chance that we're 10 years away from commercial fusion*, at which point I think global warming becomes a non-issue. Not just because of the reduction in carbon output, but the vast amounts of cheap energy make things like mass desalinization possible and the increases the likelihood of us having the wealth and ability to adapt to global warming.

* Helion Energy and General Fusion are the two closest to showing + net power in their demo models. Once they do, scaling up should bring exponential increases in power produced. Additional good news - Helion uses deuterium + He3 fusion, which is aneutronic, so there will be no concerns about radiation.

5 years away?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/10/microso ... -2028.html

As I understand it, there are penalties for Helion if it can't deliver the power by 2028. This may still not work, but it sure seems like they're confident it will.

[lheugh]

Enjoyable read.

[KyleSchuant]

seems like, were collectively retarded either way .... CO2 or not, still gonna run out of oil.
Water is still precious.
Food not easy grow/world population increasing (in all the wrong places).

Yes. And there are other aspects, too. For example, having lots of small businesses instead of One Big Shopping Mall means more local employment, and more employment overall. It means more walking, which means less obesity and better physical health, and lower medical bills private or public.

It's like gym stuff, people argue about all sorts of shit, but what's the overlap in what they say? Rip says low-bar back squat. Weightlifters say high-bar. Dan John says front squat. Pavel says double kettlebell front squat. Argue over the differences, but what do they all say? You have to squat. So if we're squatting in some way, we're doing something right. I look for the overlap. Same with climate, resources, etc - what are some things we could do that'll help with all of them?

[Culican]

Enjoyable read.

I scanned it real fast (will read it later when I have time) and noticed he mentioned The Limits To Growth from 1972. I remember when that came out. I was in high school and looked at the front page of the newspaper one morning and in the lower corner of the front page there was an article, "World Economic Collapse Predicted for 2040." It seems like we may be right on schedule.

[lheugh]

Enjoyable read.

I scanned it real fast (will read it later when I have time) and noticed he mentioned The Limits To Growth from 1972. I remember when that came out. I was in high school and looked at the front page of the newspaper one morning and in the lower corner of the front page there was an article, "World Economic Collapse Predicted for 2040." It seems like we may be right on schedule.

I think the next few years will be....interesting.