Rare coins

[zappey1]

What are the differences in objectives / expected return / risk / etc. for holding coins with numismatic value as opposed to bullion or junk silver?

I have a pretty good grasp of the latter, less so the former.

Junk/ gold silver just goes off the market value. Rare coins can have added value based of collectors. As I was looking things up I found something that said they can go up 25% a year in value based off what is available. Plus they always hold the value of the actual metal they are made of.

Anything can go up 25% in a year in the right conditions. Stocks too.

I understand the basic price mechanics.

If gold is 1,800/oz and I buy 10 rare-ish double eagle coins for 3k apiece, I have $18k in bullion and $12k in speculative 'collector' value.

So, why did I do that? What hole in my portfolio does that $12k in speculative value fill? What risk am I hedging, or what condition am I hoping to profit from here?

If this sounds adversarial it's not, I really haven't researched this and I'm interested in the answer.

They would hopefully hold the value a little better even if the gold price was down (for collector/historic value).

If you had several and it was rare the more you had the more you could potentially control that market. 250 double eagle 1883 were made that year. If I had 100 of them I could potential control some supply demand. (disclaimer I would probably never be in a position to do that)

A Youtuber I watch does this with Missile launching Boba Fetts original figures. He has well over a hundred and eventually he will have a lot to say about how much they sell for to collectors. He probably already does

Just like any investment there is no guarantee and collecting things should bring some amount of joy IMO. But buying rare coins seems like a safer bet to me then rare action figures. At least coins will always have a melt resale even if everything else falls through. Boba Fetts have vary little melt value!

[mikeylikey]

They would hopefully hold the value a little better even if the gold price was down (for collector/historic value).

Hopefully, sure. That's still not the answer to my question. Obviously the collector value MIHGT move, or not move, independent with and even in the opposite direction of, the melt value. Got it.

What's the proposed mechanism here, on which collectors are basing their speculation that the collector values will be more stable / less sensitive to economic conditions which would make bullion values go down?

Like, if my objective is to have an investment which holds its value well during a recession, my worry is that collectible coins will tank during a recession, maybe even more than gold, as the market shifts demands towards necessities and away from frivolous items. Would I be wrong?

If my objective is a long term inflation hedge, what's the mechanism that ascribes a better long term store of value on subjective collector value than on bare metal?

[zappey1]

They would hopefully hold the value a little better even if the gold price was down (for collector/historic value).

Hopefully, sure. That's still not the answer to my question. Obviously the collector value MIHGT move, or not move, independent with and even in the opposite direction of, the melt value. Got it.

What's the proposed mechanism here, on which collectors are basing their speculation that the collector values will be more stable / less sensitive to economic conditions which would make bullion values go down?

Like, if my objective is to have an investment which holds its value well during a recession, my worry is that collectible coins will tank during a recession, maybe even more than gold, as the market shifts demands towards necessities and away from frivolous items. Would I be wrong?

If my objective is a long term inflation hedge, what's the mechanism that ascribes a better long term store of value on subjective collector value than on bare metal?

The extra value comes from finding a collector. If the market was tanking you might have to hold on to them until the market is back up.

With that said if lots of people melted down their 1883s during a down turn and I saved mine, then when people started to be interested in collecting again (lets say 30 years) my coin would potentially be much more valuable than the going price for gold because it became more scarce.

The rarer the coin the better for potential gain. People have been collecting coins much longer than Boba Fetts. No one may give 2 craps about missile launching Boba Fets in 30 years but chances are pretty good rare coin collectors will still be around in the future.

It is almost like investing in gold with added historical component (which I love). Hell I have even thought about investing/collecting fossils for the same reason. However fossils do not have a melt value but just like rare coins there is a finite amount. Sam idea as investing in gold or other precious metals. I would rather have rare coins (or even just gold) then dodgecoin any day.

So I guess you would invest with the potential they could go up faster then current gold prices in the future.

[Philbert]

The only scenario I see where a lot of coins get melted would be high industrial demand with declining monetary demand, or a major confiscation event during a period with low collector premiums. Apart from that, the collector component allows for some upside or value preservation when inflation is up and confidence is high. Personally, I would rather have my bullion and collectible in separate instruments, because it keeps transaction costs lower in the event I want to sell collectible while keeping bullion, or vice versa. It is easy for me to imagine an economic scenario where collector prices were high but bullion was depressed. On the other end, most people who buy gold imagine a scenario where bullion prices would be high but collector values depressed. All that aside, one of the rules of investing in tangible assets is buy stuff you like, because otherwise you are likely to sell at a loss just to get rid of it. So if you decide your portfolio needs a collector item and gold, and you like old coins, you are better off buying old coins than buying gold rounds and rare stamps.

[Hardartery]

When there is a rise in melt value, as there has been the last two years, such that it raises the melt value of the coin above the numismatic value then people start melting them.

Help me understand this. Isn't the market price of a coin* defined by a formula P = M+N where P is the price, M is the melt value, and N is the numsimatic/collector premium? Does N go negative?


(excluding here token money like current US change which has metal value significantly below the face amount and gets its value by fiat)

It depends. There are plenty of borderline coins where numismatically they are worth more when silver is at $12/oz, but that value does not necessarily change as it is dictated by supply and demand. 1963 dimes of no special importance will sell at coin shows or flea markets for a realtively flat value, when silver suddenly goes up to $22/oz that coins value becomes equal to melt and not melt plus anything. There are a lot of coins like that out there, or at least there were. A Kruggerand, for example, is worth melt by and large, period. An Eagle sells for melt plus because collectors and hoarders like Eagles, so it's an emotional premium. It's not a flat equation that applies equally, it depends on what the market will bear. Right now a lot of coins are gone or going that would have been held because of numismatic value 5 years ago. So much so that plenty of coins that really are worth more than melt are being melted by the less educated pawn shops and low level buyers and sellers. The "Gold and silver" shops do this a lot, they aren't coin experts and melt stuff to their own financial detriment at times.

[bobmen10000]

Gold is high enough now that the super majority of gold coins are subject to spot price - if gold was sub 500.00 an ounce then numismatic(collectible) value would hold sway and be significantly greater than scrap - right now that isn't really true as common American gold coins are informed by spot price, they go up and down in value relative to daily changes in the gold market. When silver was over $40.00 an ounce, a lot of common very good to fine morgan and peace dollars held more value for bullion than numismatic, which is blasphemy to "real" collectors.

What determines trends in terms of value for a coin is basically 3 things - rarity, condition and collectability. The first two are largely quantifiable with any industry standards, the last not so much. Cents are more collectible than nickels generally speaking; silver dollars are more collectible than halves and quarters; late 19th and early to mid 20th century American coins have a greater market than late 18th century to mid 19th century. A lot of this has to do with being able to complete a set and the quality of the coins themselves. However what makes one thing more desirable/collectible than another isn't something that can easily be explained, I imagine some smart economist has a bullshit formula but the truth is that some coin types are in demand now and will likely not be so much in a few years, see what happened to state and commemorative quarters, part of it is due to supply but a lot of it is just the fickle nature of collectors. I primarily deal in mid 20th century and earlier coins because I am not great at forecasting what recent coin type or variant will become hot.

Also, most pawn shops and gold & silver buying shops do not actually scrap American silver coins, which I earlier mentioned are known as junk silver within the industry; I actually don't know of anyone who does anymore. They are traded amongst dealers and/or sold directly to bullion buyers. I actually don't know anyone who actually scraps bullion silver in general; most of what gets assayed at refineries is sterling flatware & serving ware, industrial silver and broken jewelry - I knew one refinery that would sell you any American junk silver coins they received because of the premium received versus straight scrap, a premium that exists when silver is at $12.00 per ounce and at $49.00 per ounce. Gold scrapped at refineries is typically jewelry.

[bobmen10000]

All that aside, one of the rules of investing in tangible assets is buy stuff you like, because otherwise you are likely to sell at a loss just to get rid of it. So if you decide your portfolio needs a collector item and gold, and you like old coins, you are better off buying old coins than buying gold rounds and rare stamps.

Buy stuff you like. I tried to put it better and didn't. I may add one little thing: buy stuff you like and can afford to lose.

[zappey1]

Fedex!!!!!!!!! I hate Fedex

They tried to deliver the coin to my house. Turns out they need a signature to leave it. Okay cool let me set up a time so I can be home to sign. Turns out they don't guarantee a time! Well why in the F would they have that option then?

Okay well I'll just go to the facility and pick it up after work. NOPE turns out the seller left directions not to do that. Even though on the slip they left it says I could. Fedex says I have to message the seller to call them and set it up so I can sign for it at the store. Turns out now I can't even get it today no matter what because it is on a backlogged truck somewhere!

I'm not sure where this will end or when I will actually get the coin. I have had sign deliveries before from UPS, USPS where I can coordinate with the driver to be home via drivers work cell or local dispatcher. NOPE turns Fedex doesn't do that. You can't even find the number to the local facility.

Bottom line Fedex is terrible and I have had similar problems with them before. I see a sick day in my future to sit waiting for my package ALL day that then could possible be delayed and not even delivered.

FML Fedex!!!!!!!!!!

[mikeylikey]

All that aside, one of the rules of investing in tangible assets is buy stuff you like, because otherwise you are likely to sell at a loss just to get rid of it. So if you decide your portfolio needs a collector item and gold, and you like old coins, you are better off buying old coins than buying gold rounds and rare stamps.

Buy stuff you like. I tried to put it better and didn't. I may add one little thing: buy stuff you like and can afford to lose.

I can dig this. Anybody ever calculate the melt value of a '63 split-window?

[bobmen10000]

Fedex!!!!!!!!! I hate Fedex

They tried to deliver the coin to my house. Turns out they need a signature to leave it. Okay cool let me set up a time so I can be home to sign. Turns out they don't guarantee a time! Well why in the F would they have that option then?

Okay well I'll just go to the facility and pick it up after work. NOPE turns out the seller left directions not to do that. Even though on the slip they left it says I could. Fedex says I have to message the seller to call them and set it up so I can sign for it at the store. Turns out now I can't even get it today no matter what because it is on a backlogged truck somewhere!

I'm not sure where this will end or when I will actually get the coin. I have had sign deliveries before from UPS, USPS where I can coordinate with the driver to be home via drivers work cell or local dispatcher. NOPE turns Fedex doesn't do that. You can't even find the number to the local facility.

Bottom line Fedex is terrible and I have had similar problems with them before. I see a sick day in my future to sit waiting for my package ALL day that then could possible be delayed and not even delivered.

FML Fedex!!!!!!!!!!

You are actually kind of lucky here. Since Covid a lot of delivery services, including Fed Ex, are instructing drivers to sign for packages themselves and leaving the parcel. This has resulted in a lot of major coin and bullion thefts in the last couple years - one of the many reasons it is difficult to get decent and affordable parcel insurance on coins, jewelry and other precious metals based products.

[zappey1]

Fedex!!!!!!!!! I hate Fedex

They tried to deliver the coin to my house. Turns out they need a signature to leave it. Okay cool let me set up a time so I can be home to sign. Turns out they don't guarantee a time! Well why in the F would they have that option then?

Okay well I'll just go to the facility and pick it up after work. NOPE turns out the seller left directions not to do that. Even though on the slip they left it says I could. Fedex says I have to message the seller to call them and set it up so I can sign for it at the store. Turns out now I can't even get it today no matter what because it is on a backlogged truck somewhere!

I'm not sure where this will end or when I will actually get the coin. I have had sign deliveries before from UPS, USPS where I can coordinate with the driver to be home via drivers work cell or local dispatcher. NOPE turns Fedex doesn't do that. You can't even find the number to the local facility.

Bottom line Fedex is terrible and I have had similar problems with them before. I see a sick day in my future to sit waiting for my package ALL day that then could possible be delayed and not even delivered.

FML Fedex!!!!!!!!!!

You are actually kind of lucky here. Since Covid a lot of delivery services, including Fed Ex, are instructing drivers to sign for packages themselves and leaving the parcel. This has resulted in a lot of major coin and bullion thefts in the last couple years - one of the many reasons it is difficult to get decent and affordable parcel insurance on coins, jewelry and other precious metals based products.

But why couldn't I get a set time? Why couldn't I go in and sign? I emailed the seller and asked that he change the settings so I can go in and pick it up. He said that was okay and he would work on that. He said they had that rule from getting scammed? Seems like a very elaborate scam to have a fake ID to pick up a package at a Fedex facility but I guess I'm not a scammer so I don't know.

Seller also said they use UPS for things under 1k but have to use fedex for over because of insurance. UPS calls me and sets up a delivery time. Fedex says FU we will try to deliver it this day at sometime. But we might get behind and not be able to.

Very frustrating. I also think that if I am willing to assume the risk why can't they leave it on my porch in the milk box? Seller can't even change that once it ships. I feel for the seller and getting scammed but Fedex needs to step up their customer experience IMO.

[Hardartery]

Fedex!!!!!!!!! I hate Fedex

They tried to deliver the coin to my house. Turns out they need a signature to leave it. Okay cool let me set up a time so I can be home to sign. Turns out they don't guarantee a time! Well why in the F would they have that option then?

Okay well I'll just go to the facility and pick it up after work. NOPE turns out the seller left directions not to do that. Even though on the slip they left it says I could. Fedex says I have to message the seller to call them and set it up so I can sign for it at the store. Turns out now I can't even get it today no matter what because it is on a backlogged truck somewhere!

I'm not sure where this will end or when I will actually get the coin. I have had sign deliveries before from UPS, USPS where I can coordinate with the driver to be home via drivers work cell or local dispatcher. NOPE turns Fedex doesn't do that. You can't even find the number to the local facility.

Bottom line Fedex is terrible and I have had similar problems with them before. I see a sick day in my future to sit waiting for my package ALL day that then could possible be delayed and not even delivered.

FML Fedex!!!!!!!!!!

You are actually kind of lucky here. Since Covid a lot of delivery services, including Fed Ex, are instructing drivers to sign for packages themselves and leaving the parcel. This has resulted in a lot of major coin and bullion thefts in the last couple years - one of the many reasons it is difficult to get decent and affordable parcel insurance on coins, jewelry and other precious metals based products.

But why couldn't I get a set time? Why couldn't I go in and sign? I emailed the seller and asked that he change the settings so I can go in and pick it up. He said that was okay and he would work on that. He said they had that rule from getting scammed? Seems like a very elaborate scam to have a fake ID to pick up a package at a Fedex facility but I guess I'm not a scammer so I don't know.

Seller also said they use UPS for things under 1k but have to use fedex for over because of insurance. UPS calls me and sets up a delivery time. Fedex says FU we will try to deliver it this day at sometime. But we might get behind and not be able to.

Very frustrating. I also think that if I am willing to assume the risk why can't they leave it on my porch in the milk box? Seller can't even change that once it ships. I feel for the seller and getting scammed but Fedex needs to step up their customer experience IMO.

I'm not sure if this is why, but I know that Fedex uses a lot of contractors for delivery. Yes, they wear Fedex uniforms and the trucks are wrapped, but they often are not actual Fedex employees. UPS does not do this I believe.

[zappey1]

They let my wife sign for it at the facility! I accidently put her name as recipient (auto fill). This was after they tried to deliver it again at 2:20 even though there was delivering instructions to not deliver it before 4.

[zappey1]

Anyone know anything about old watches? I saw a lot at the local auction house today. I saw some old Mickey Mouse ones and a citizen that I have seen sell for like $80 each on ebay; I don't know much if it worth a bid or not
https://www.apro.bid/auction/4471/item/ ... ins-716717

They also had these old GI Joes that I know can sell if my kids did not destroy them before I sold them:
https://www.apro.bid/auction/4471/item/ ... ers-716737